Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4633
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4633
23 Oct 2025
 | 23 Oct 2025

Relationships between Arctic sea-ice concentration, temperature, and specific humidity in the lower troposphere during 1980–2021

Tereza Uhlíková, Timo Vihma, Alexey Yu Karpechko, and Petteri Uotila

Abstract. Understanding of the local effects of sea-ice concentration (SIC) variations on the Arctic atmosphere is a prerequisite for assessing the role of Arctic sea-ice decline in the climate system, including its influence on mid-latitudes. In this study, we analysed the relationships between SIC and both temperature and specific humidity at the surface and 2-m level, as well as at 950, 850, 750, and 600 hPa across the circumpolar Arctic. We applied linear ordinary-least-squares-regression analysis to detrended anomalies of monthly means of data from the NCEP/CFSR atmospheric reanalysis for 1980–2021. The results show the strongest correlations between SIC and temperature, as well as between SIC and specific humidity, in the marginal ice zone during the cold seasons (November–April) with the coefficient of determination (R2) around 0.6 at the surface and near-surface levels and around 0.3 at 950 and 850 hPa. During these cold seasons, SIC affects air temperature and specific humidity, while the effects of air temperature variations on SIC are limited. SIC correlates somewhat better with specific humidity than with temperature, which can be attributed to the exponential dependence of saturation specific humidity on temperature. In the Central Arctic, physical conditions are favourable for high R2 values, but low variability in SIC reduces the correlations. In contrast, in regions such as the northern Barents Sea, increased November–April SIC variability from 1980–2000 to 2001–2021 strengthens the correlations, even though surface heat and moisture fluxes become less sensitive to SIC in a warming climate. This finding suggests that statistical effects can outweigh the physical sensitivity in shaping observed relationships. During the warm seasons (May–October), high enough air temperatures reduce SIC, while the effect of SIC is small due to the surface temperature of the ice being close to that of the open ocean. The relationships between SIC and both temperature and specific humidity are generally weaker during these warm seasons with R2 at the surface and near-surface levels around 0.4 over the marginal ice zone during May–July and across the entire sea-ice zone during August–October. The role of wind speed and direction in the relationships between SIC and both temperature and specific humidity is discussed.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

20 Aug 2026
Relationships between Arctic sea-ice concentration, temperature, and specific humidity in the lower troposphere during 1980–2021
Tereza Uhlíková, Timo Vihma, Alexey Yu Karpechko, and Petteri Uotila
The Cryosphere, 20, 4585–4604, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4585-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4585-2026, 2026
Short summary
Tereza Uhlíková, Timo Vihma, Alexey Yu Karpechko, and Petteri Uotila

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4633', Anonymous Referee #1, 12 Nov 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Tereza Uhlíková, 16 Apr 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4633', Anonymous Referee #2, 17 Mar 2026
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Tereza Uhlíková, 16 Apr 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (22 Apr 2026) by David Schroeder
AR by Tereza Uhlíková on behalf of the Authors (29 Jun 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (13 Jul 2026) by David Schroeder
AR by Tereza Uhlíková on behalf of the Authors (11 Aug 2026)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4633', Anonymous Referee #1, 12 Nov 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Tereza Uhlíková, 16 Apr 2026
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4633', Anonymous Referee #2, 17 Mar 2026
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Tereza Uhlíková, 16 Apr 2026

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (22 Apr 2026) by David Schroeder
AR by Tereza Uhlíková on behalf of the Authors (29 Jun 2026)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (13 Jul 2026) by David Schroeder
AR by Tereza Uhlíková on behalf of the Authors (11 Aug 2026)

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

20 Aug 2026
Relationships between Arctic sea-ice concentration, temperature, and specific humidity in the lower troposphere during 1980–2021
Tereza Uhlíková, Timo Vihma, Alexey Yu Karpechko, and Petteri Uotila
The Cryosphere, 20, 4585–4604, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4585-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-4585-2026, 2026
Short summary
Tereza Uhlíková, Timo Vihma, Alexey Yu Karpechko, and Petteri Uotila
Tereza Uhlíková, Timo Vihma, Alexey Yu Karpechko, and Petteri Uotila

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Short summary
Understanding of the local effects of sea-ice concentration variations on the Arctic atmosphere is a prerequisite for assessing the role of Arctic sea-ice decline in the climate system, including its influence on mid-latitudes. In our study, using data from atmospheric reanalysis, we present how the relationships of sea-ice concentration, temperature, and specific humidity and their direction change depending on region and season over the Arctic.
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