the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
| 19 Sep 2025
Landfalling tropical cyclones significantly reduce Bangladesh's energy security
Abstract. Bangladesh's rapidly expanding, yet fragile, electricity grid is highly exposed to tropical cyclones. However, the operational impacts of these storms on the power system are not well quantified. Here, we combine daily metered electricity demand data for Bangladesh's nine power zones with meteorological and hazard datasets over the last decade. We find that landfalling tropical cyclones cause an average 20 % reduction in national electricity supply, with coastal zones disproportionately affected, experiencing drops of up to 38 %. Analysis of case studies shows that high winds, storm surge, and extreme precipitation are all key contributors to these outages. While Bangladesh imports power from neighbouring West Bengal (India) to strengthen security, we show that cyclone impacts are often correlated across both regions, limiting the reliability of this backup during major events. We highlight the need for continued investment in climate-resilient energy infrastructure in the region, as well as adaptation to such extremes, which are projected to become more severe with climate change.
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Notice on discussion status
The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.
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Preprint
(12759 KB)
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.
- Preprint
(12759 KB) - Metadata XML
- BibTeX
- EndNote
- Final revised paper
Journal article(s) based on this preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4474', Anonymous Referee #1, 07 Oct 2025
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AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Kieran Hunt, 20 Jan 2026
The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-4474/egusphere-2025-4474-AC1-supplement.pdf
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AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Kieran Hunt, 20 Jan 2026
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CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4474', Edris Alam, 11 Oct 2025
Abstract: The methodology of this study is not much clear in the abstract. I would suggest to make it more explicit.
I was trying to read this section with interest, but I missed to read those recent changes and following publication on coastal region of Bangladesh.
- Change in cyclone disaster vulnerability and response in coastal Bangladesh.
- Factors affecting cyclone disasters death in Bangladesh
The analytical framework would benefit from greater methodological integration between the hazard and energy components. The authors present these analyses in largely parallel sections—examining meteorological intensity, storm surges, and rainfall separately from the demand-side impacts—without sufficiently articulating how these dimensions are combined quantitatively. The causal links between specific hazard metrics (e.g., wind speed, surge height, or accumulated rainfall) and observed demand reductions remain more descriptive than analytical. A more explicit coupling—through correlation analysis, regression modelling, or joint risk mapping—would strengthen the inference that particular hazard mechanisms drive grid disruptions.
Additionally, while the cross-border energy trade with India is discussed insightfully, the statistical treatment of correlated impacts could be deepened by using synchronized event analyses or network resilience modelling. The use of daily data, while pragmatic, also limits temporal precision in understanding outage onset and recovery dynamics. I am curious whether the authors could draw connections to Bhasan Char, an island located in the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh, where solar energy is extensively utilized and has shown comparatively higher resilience during cyclone-induced disruptions.
Overall, the study makes a significant empirical contribution.
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AC3: 'Reply on CC1', Kieran Hunt, 21 Jan 2026
The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-4474/egusphere-2025-4474-AC3-supplement.pdf
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4474', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Oct 2025
The study integrates cyclone impacts with energy demand data — relevant and regionally novel. However, the novelty statement should be clearer and distinguished from prior cyclone–energy studies.
Major comments:
- Daily demand data may mix physical outages and load-shedding. Provide uncertainty bounds or a brief sensitivity test to confirm attribution.
- Include quantitative details (wind speed, surge, rainfall) for each event and test the relation between cyclone intensity and demand loss.
- The India–Bangladesh power-sharing section needs quantitative support—e.g., frequency or MW impact of synchronized dips.
- Adaptation options are strong but could be ranked by vulnerability or summarized in a schematic table for clarity.
Minor comments:
- Abstract: Add numbers for average and maximum power losses.
- Figures: Clarify units, improve color contrast.
- Methods: Briefly mention missing-data handling and smoothing approach.
- Reference: Add one or two regional energy policy sources.
- Maintain consistency in “met demand” terminology.
Overall, the study is good, but improvements in quantitative precision, clarity, and uncertainty reduction are needed before acceptance.
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AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Kieran Hunt, 21 Jan 2026
The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-4474/egusphere-2025-4474-AC2-supplement.pdf
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4474', Anonymous Referee #1, 07 Oct 2025
Manuscript Title: Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Significantly Reduce Bangladesh’s Energy Security
Summary of the Manuscript
This manuscript examines the impact of landfalling tropical cyclones on Bangladesh’s energy security, using a combination of daily metered electricity demand data for Bangladesh’s nine power zones with meteorological and hazard datasets. The authors argue that landfalling tropical cyclones cause an average 20% reduction in national electricity supply, with coastal zones disproportion affected, experiencing drops of up to 38%. Finally, authors highlight the need for continued investment in climate-resilient energy infrastructure in the region, as well as adaptation to such extremes, which are projected to become more severe with climate change. The topic is timely, policy-relevant, and empirically important. The paper makes a valuable contribution to understanding the climate–energy nexus in a highly vulnerable country. It addresses a critical gap — the intersection of DRR and energy security — particularly within the West Bengal and Bangladesh context. However, the manuscript requires substantial clarification, data transparency, and necessary refinement to reach publishable standard. The argument is compelling, but methodological rigor and framing could be improved to meet international expectations.
Major comments
- The concept of “energy security” is not clearly defined in introduction section.
- Authors should clarify how cyclone impacts are mapped onto diverse dimensions.
- The introduction overlooks key comparative studies: for example, Southeast Asian energy systems and Bangladesh’s coastal energy vulnerability. How this study can contribute to the existing literature?
- In method part, causal relationship using robust statistics is missing. I suggest to specify whether regression, correlation, or event-based impact assessment.
- I also found some missing details about data sources, for example, Cyclone dataset (JTWC, IMD, or BMD?); Energy data (BPDB, WAPDA, or open-source?); Time resolution (monthly, daily, event-based?
- I suggest that spatial analysis (GIS or remote sensing) could greatly strengthen the results.
- In the discussion section, this study lacks scholarly discussion for example, how landfalling tropical cyclones significantly impacted Bangladesh’s energy security
- The conclusion is currently descriptive and too much.
- What is the key message for reader? Authors should connect findings to SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) and SDG 13 (Climate Action).
Minor Comments
- Authors clarify units for energy loss (MW vs. MWh).
- I suggest to provide cyclone names and years in a new Table for reader clarity.
- Authors should improve figure readability (especially cyclone track map).
Rationale:
The manuscript is promising but needs clearer methodological articulation, standardized definitions of energy security, and stronger quantitative validation. Addressing these issues will make the paper suitable for publication in this journal.Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4474-RC1 -
AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Kieran Hunt, 20 Jan 2026
The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-4474/egusphere-2025-4474-AC1-supplement.pdf
- The concept of “energy security” is not clearly defined in introduction section.
-
CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4474', Edris Alam, 11 Oct 2025
Abstract: The methodology of this study is not much clear in the abstract. I would suggest to make it more explicit.
I was trying to read this section with interest, but I missed to read those recent changes and following publication on coastal region of Bangladesh.
- Change in cyclone disaster vulnerability and response in coastal Bangladesh.
- Factors affecting cyclone disasters death in Bangladesh
The analytical framework would benefit from greater methodological integration between the hazard and energy components. The authors present these analyses in largely parallel sections—examining meteorological intensity, storm surges, and rainfall separately from the demand-side impacts—without sufficiently articulating how these dimensions are combined quantitatively. The causal links between specific hazard metrics (e.g., wind speed, surge height, or accumulated rainfall) and observed demand reductions remain more descriptive than analytical. A more explicit coupling—through correlation analysis, regression modelling, or joint risk mapping—would strengthen the inference that particular hazard mechanisms drive grid disruptions.
Additionally, while the cross-border energy trade with India is discussed insightfully, the statistical treatment of correlated impacts could be deepened by using synchronized event analyses or network resilience modelling. The use of daily data, while pragmatic, also limits temporal precision in understanding outage onset and recovery dynamics. I am curious whether the authors could draw connections to Bhasan Char, an island located in the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh, where solar energy is extensively utilized and has shown comparatively higher resilience during cyclone-induced disruptions.
Overall, the study makes a significant empirical contribution.
-
AC3: 'Reply on CC1', Kieran Hunt, 21 Jan 2026
The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-4474/egusphere-2025-4474-AC3-supplement.pdf
-
RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4474', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Oct 2025
The study integrates cyclone impacts with energy demand data — relevant and regionally novel. However, the novelty statement should be clearer and distinguished from prior cyclone–energy studies.
Major comments:
- Daily demand data may mix physical outages and load-shedding. Provide uncertainty bounds or a brief sensitivity test to confirm attribution.
- Include quantitative details (wind speed, surge, rainfall) for each event and test the relation between cyclone intensity and demand loss.
- The India–Bangladesh power-sharing section needs quantitative support—e.g., frequency or MW impact of synchronized dips.
- Adaptation options are strong but could be ranked by vulnerability or summarized in a schematic table for clarity.
Minor comments:
- Abstract: Add numbers for average and maximum power losses.
- Figures: Clarify units, improve color contrast.
- Methods: Briefly mention missing-data handling and smoothing approach.
- Reference: Add one or two regional energy policy sources.
- Maintain consistency in “met demand” terminology.
Overall, the study is good, but improvements in quantitative precision, clarity, and uncertainty reduction are needed before acceptance.
-
AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Kieran Hunt, 21 Jan 2026
The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-4474/egusphere-2025-4474-AC2-supplement.pdf
Peer review completion
Journal article(s) based on this preprint
Data sets
Bangladesh electricity demand by state (2015–2025) Kieran M. R. Hunt https://gws-access.jasmin.ac.uk/public/wcssp_india/kieran/bangladesh-electricity-demand.csv
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Kieran M. R. Hunt
Hannah C. Bloomfield
The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.
- Preprint
(12759 KB) - Metadata XML
Manuscript Title: Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Significantly Reduce Bangladesh’s Energy Security
Summary of the Manuscript
This manuscript examines the impact of landfalling tropical cyclones on Bangladesh’s energy security, using a combination of daily metered electricity demand data for Bangladesh’s nine power zones with meteorological and hazard datasets. The authors argue that landfalling tropical cyclones cause an average 20% reduction in national electricity supply, with coastal zones disproportion affected, experiencing drops of up to 38%. Finally, authors highlight the need for continued investment in climate-resilient energy infrastructure in the region, as well as adaptation to such extremes, which are projected to become more severe with climate change. The topic is timely, policy-relevant, and empirically important. The paper makes a valuable contribution to understanding the climate–energy nexus in a highly vulnerable country. It addresses a critical gap — the intersection of DRR and energy security — particularly within the West Bengal and Bangladesh context. However, the manuscript requires substantial clarification, data transparency, and necessary refinement to reach publishable standard. The argument is compelling, but methodological rigor and framing could be improved to meet international expectations.
Major comments
Minor Comments
Rationale:
The manuscript is promising but needs clearer methodological articulation, standardized definitions of energy security, and stronger quantitative validation. Addressing these issues will make the paper suitable for publication in this journal.