the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The 15 September 2022 floods in northern Marche (Central Italy): disaster analysis, case studies and mitigation strategies for geomorphological- hydraulic risk
Abstract. On September 15th and 16th, 2022, a large area of the Marche region in central Italy experienced an exceptionally heavy rainfall event, with nearly 420 mm/m² of rain falling in just six hours. The intense rains, in addition to causing 13 fatalities, triggered a large number of landslides in the mountain areas and flood events, mainly distributed along the valleys of the hydrographic basins of Metauro, Cesano, Misa, and Esino Rivers. The physiographic setting of the territory and the poor maintenance of both the main and secondary hydrographic network, often insufficient or entirely absent, exacerbated an already exceptional event. Although extraordinary, the natural event affected an area already hit by intense meteoric events in the past, the most recent of which occurred just eight years earlier, in 2014.
This study presents the results of the systematic and detailed surveys conducted in several sites affected by the storm, also providing detailed case studies. These surveys highlighted the critical issues detected during the disaster and identified appropriate intervention measures for reducing hydraulic risk in the Region. Many of these measures are innovative and will serve as guidelines for future land-use planning and for improving public education and awareness in flood-prone areas.
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Status: open (until 05 Nov 2025)
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-4405', Anonymous Referee #1, 09 Oct 2025
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Overall AssessmentThis manuscript is a highly valuable, systematic disaster analysis of the catastrophic September 2022 floods in the Marche region, Central Italy, which caused thirteen fatalities and extensive damage. The study rigorously documents the event, identifying critical geomorphological and hydraulic issues through extensive field surveys, historical cartography, and collaboration with regional authorities.The central strength lies in demonstrating how extreme meteorological conditions (classified as an "outlier event" with over 1000-year return times in some locations) interacted disastrously with long-term anthropogenic modifications (e.g., channelizing, burying rivers, and neglecting maintenance). The paper provides a clear path forward for immediate local fixes and critical long-term systemic changes.Strengths1. Detailed Empirical Data Collection: The study is grounded in systematic and detailed on-field surveys across multiple affected towns, including Cantiano, Sassoferrato, and Senigallia. This generated maps of critical issues and specific suggested interventions.2. Multidisciplinary Approach: The methodology effectively employed a multi-source approach, drawing on meteorological analysis, field geomorphological mapping, hydrological/hydraulic analysis, and historical records, such as the Gregorian historical cadastre (1835).3. Hydrogeomorphological Insight: The paper expertly differentiates the critical issues between mountain environments (where high slope and narrow riverbeds led to intense erosive phenomena and landslides) and foothill contexts (where channelized rivers and damaged earthen embankments caused widespread flooding across broad alluvial plains).4. Policy Relevance: The research was directly functional, emerging from an agreement with the Marche Regional Administration to identify priority risk mitigation interventions, making the findings immediately applicable to reconstruction efforts and risk planning.Points for Improvement and Discussion1. Framing of Mitigation Strategies: The authors clearly state that hydraulic restoration alone (reinforcing banks, removing sediment, rebuilding bridges) will not be sufficient to prevent future flooding. They identify the definitive long-term solution as the relocation of structures from flood areas and the creation of natural expansion/retention basins (requiring expropriations). This necessity for avoidance (protecting natural flood areas) and elimination (relocation/managed retreat), should be explicitly highlighted in the Discussion using established concepts like the Flood Adaptation Hierarchy (FAH). The structural fixes proposed (e.g., bridge enlargement, gabions) should be framed explicitly as lower-priority accommodations/defenses (Tiers 3–6 of the FAH) that buy time, rather than long-term solutions, as acknowledged by the authors (see Peck et al., 2022)Suggestion: Directly compare the proposed interventions (relocation vs. restoration) to the FAH to strengthen the paper’s contribution to modern risk management theory.2. Hydrological Modeling Details: While the text references hydrologic-hydraulic modeling results (e.g., calculating maximum flood discharge using Giandotti's method) and mentions that future work will include numerical modeling, the Methods section detailing the analytical sequence is primarily descriptive of data inventory. To enhance the methodological rigor for an engineering/geoscience audience, the authors could clarify how the quantitative hydrological-hydraulic models (often involving software like HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS, used in similar hydrogeomorphological studies - see Lombana et al., 2024) were specifically utilized to reach conclusions, such as the insufficiency of local fixes.3. Integration of Geomorphological Processes in Mitigation: The text emphasizes that the geomorphological effects must be monitored, noting that erosion/deposition processes (e.g., debris flow deposits, river point bar migration) were widespread. Future discussion could link the need for "natural expansion" areas not just to water attenuation, but also to managing sediment transport and geomorphic evolution, which is a critical concern when mitigating floods with structures like leaky dams in headwater systems. (see Wolstenholme et al., 2025)4. Systemic Deficiencies and Vulnerability: The discussion correctly identifies the need to upgrade monitoring networks (hydrometric instrumentation was washed away) and improve public awareness/early warning systems. These deficiencies underscore the systemic challenges in disaster-prone regions and align with systematic reviews identifying resource provision and technology gaps (EWS, communication networks) as critical pillars of flood mitigation for critical infrastructure. (see Arefi et al., 2025).The recommendation for this manuscript is for Minor to moderate revision focusing on integrating the policy recommendations into modern risk management frameworks.ReferencesPeck, Andrew J., Stevie L. Adams, Andrea Armstrong, et al. “A New Framework for Flood Adaptation: Introducing the Flood Adaptation Hierarchy.” Ecology and Society 27, no. 4 (2022). https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-13544-270405.Lombana, Lorena, Biswa Bhattacharya, Leonardo Alfonso, and Antonio Martínez-Graña. “Hydrogeomorphological Approach for Flood Analyses at High- Detailed Scale: Narrow Rivers with Broad Complex Alluvial Plains.” CATENA 242 (July 2024): 108081. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2024.108081.Wolstenholme, Joshua M., Christopher J. Skinner, David Milan, Robert E. Thomas, and Daniel R. Parsons. “Hydro-Geomorphological Modelling of Leaky Wooden Dam Efficacy from Reach to Catchment Scale with CAESAR-Lisflood 1.9j.” Geoscientific Model Development 18, no. 5 (2025): 1395–411. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1395-2025.Arefi, Farhad, Asghar Tavan, Seyed Mobin Moradi, Salman Daneshi, and Hojjat Farahmandnia. “Identifying Challenges and Future Directions of Flood Hazards Mitigation Strategies in Health Facilities: A Systematic Literature Review.” BMC Emergency Medicine 25, no. 1 (2025): 174. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12873-025-01339-0.ReplyCitation: https://doi.org/
10.5194/egusphere-2025-4405-RC1
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