Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4356
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4356
23 Sep 2025
 | 23 Sep 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).

Nonlinear hydro-climatic controls on an arid-region lake: Evidence from 40 years of remote sensing

Rui Zou, Xiaojun Wang, Jianyun Zhang, Wentai Pang, and Jianfeng Liu

Abstract. Accurate measurement of lake surface area is essential for understanding eco-hydrological processes in arid regions, yet long-term records are often limited by cloud contamination, seasonal ice cover, and data gaps. In this study, we developed an optimized extraction framework that integrates seasonal index selection, adaptive thresholding, maximum connectivity analysis, and mutual information – based gap filling to construct a continuous monthly lake area series for Bahannao Lake from 1984 to 2024. This method effectively addressed common challenges in remote sensing water extraction and provided reliable long-term lake dynamics in a data-scarce desert region. Based on the reconstructed time series, we examined the multi-factor drivers of lake evolution using an XGBoost model combined with climatic and energy-balance variables. Results reveal pronounced interannual and seasonal variability: precipitation dominates lake expansion in spring and summer, while shortwave radiation is the main driver of evaporation in autumn and winter, even under cold conditions. Long-term trends indicate a shift in controlling mechanisms – from humidity and precipitation decline (1984–1999), to increased radiation and humidity variability (2000–2014), and finally to intensified sensible heat flux and potential evapotranspiration (2015–2024).Our findings highlight the nonlinear and evolving interactions between hydro-climatic factors regulating arid-region lakes. The proposed framework provides a robust approach for generating long-term lake records, advancing understanding of eco-hydrological responses to climate change, and offering scientific support for water resources management and adaptation in arid regions.

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Rui Zou, Xiaojun Wang, Jianyun Zhang, Wentai Pang, and Jianfeng Liu

Status: open (until 04 Nov 2025)

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Rui Zou, Xiaojun Wang, Jianyun Zhang, Wentai Pang, and Jianfeng Liu
Rui Zou, Xiaojun Wang, Jianyun Zhang, Wentai Pang, and Jianfeng Liu

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Short summary
We studied a lake in an arid region to understand how climate change affects its size and long-term changes. Using forty years of satellite images, we developed an improved method to create a complete monthly record of the lake's area. Our results show that rainfall drives lake growth in spring and summer, while sunlight and evaporation reduce it in autumn and winter. These findings reveal how sensitive arid-region lakes are to climate change and provide guidance for water management.
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