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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4136
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4136
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
13 Oct 2025
| 13 Oct 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Brief communication: Towards defining the worst-case breach scenarios and potential flood volumes for moraine-dammed lake outbursts
Abstract. Moraine dam failures are the main source of catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). The effective GLOF disaster risk management requires reliable identification of areas at risk. While predictive outburst flood modelling benefits from advancing tools and computational capacities, some of the fundamental considerations remain poorly addressed. Among them, the outburst flood scenarios are essential yet often oversimplified input for modelling. Here we present novel methodology which enables the estimation of a maximum breach depth and so the calculation of potential flood volume (PFV), with the key parameter being the slope of the breached channel (α) derived from past events.
How to cite. Emmer, A., Sattar, A., and Hrebrina, J.: Brief communication: Towards defining the worst-case breach scenarios and potential flood volumes for moraine-dammed lake outbursts, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-4136, 2025.
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Department of Geography and Regional Science, University of Graz, 8010 Graz, Austria
Ashim Sattar
School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
Jan Hrebrina
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are major concern in high mountain regions across the globe and effective disaster risk management requires predictive modelling which needs various input data including potential flood volume. Building on the analysis of breached channels of largest documented GLOFs originating from moraine dam failures, we present new methodology that estimates maximum breach depth and so potential flood volumes of moraine-dammed lake outbursts.
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are major concern in high mountain regions across the globe...