Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3914
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3914
02 Sep 2025
 | 02 Sep 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

A Comparative Analysis of China’s Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000–2023): Insights from Six Bottom-Up Inventories and Uncertainty Assessment

Huirong Yang, Kai Wu, Huizhong Shen, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Monica Crippa, Diego Guizzardi, and Minqiang Zhou

Abstract. Accurate quantification of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is crucial for mitigating climate change and verifying emission reduction policies. This study conducts a comparative analysis of China’s anthropogenic CO2 emissions for the period between 2000 and 2023 based on six widely used bottom-up inventories at their latest version (ODIAC2023, EDGAR2024, MEIC-global-CO2 v1.0, CAMS-GLOB-ANT v6.2, GEMS v1.0, and CEADs). The national total CO2 emissions increase from 3.43 (3.21–3.63) Gt year-1 in 2000 to 12.03 (11.35–12.98) Gt year-1 in 2023, with three growth periods: rapid growth (2000–2012, 0.56±0.015 Gt year-1), near-stagnation (2012–2016, 0.01±0.045 Gt year-1), and renewed growth (2016–2023, 0.30±0.016 Gt year-1). Emissions are dominated by the electricity and heat production, and the industry and construction (78 % of total emissions), with the former replacing the latter as the largest source after 2017. EDGAR consistently reports the highest national CO2 emissions, while MEIC provides the lowest, contributing to the large deviations after 2012. EDGAR and MEIC report different spatial distributions of the transport sector. EDGAR concentrates emissions along major roads and MEIC distributes them more diffusely. Extreme outliers (>105 ton CO2 km-2 year-1, against an average of 102 ton CO2 km-2 year-1) in these inventories arise from discrepancies in point source data in the Carbon Monitoring for Action (CARMA) versus the China Power Emissions Database (CPED). Overall, the uncertainty of total national anthropogenic CO2 emissions is within 5 % (1σ), and the uncertainties are about 10–50 % (1σ) at the provincial level.

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Huirong Yang, Kai Wu, Huizhong Shen, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Monica Crippa, Diego Guizzardi, and Minqiang Zhou

Status: open (until 14 Oct 2025)

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Huirong Yang, Kai Wu, Huizhong Shen, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Monica Crippa, Diego Guizzardi, and Minqiang Zhou
Huirong Yang, Kai Wu, Huizhong Shen, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Monica Crippa, Diego Guizzardi, and Minqiang Zhou
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Short summary
We compare six major anthropogenic CO2 emission inventories in China during the period 2000–2023 to assess emission trends and uncertainties. National emissions show a clear three‑phase pattern, with uncertainties below 5 % (1σ) at the national scale but much higher at the provincial level (10–50 %, 1σ). High-emission regions often have the largest uncertainties. Our findings support more accurate emission estimates and the verification emission reduction policies.
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