Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3788
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3788
15 Aug 2025
 | 15 Aug 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).

Accelerated lowland thermokarst development revealed by UAS photogrammetric surveys in the Stordalen mire, Abisko, Sweden

Maxime Thomas, Thomas Moenaert, Julien Radoux, Baptiste Delhez, Eléonore du Bois d'Aische, Maëlle Villani, Catherine Hirst, Erik Lundin, François Jonard, Sébastien Lambot, Kristof Van Oost, Veerle Vanacker, Matthias B. Siewert, Carl-Magnus Mörth, Michael W. Palace, Ruth K. Varner, Franklin B. Sullivan, Christina Herrick, and Sophie Opfergelt

Abstract. The estimation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from permafrost soils is challenging, as organic matter propensity to decompose depends on factors such as soil pH, temperature, and redox conditions. Over lowland permafrost soils, these conditions are directly related to the microtopography and evolve with physical degradation, i.e., lowland thermokarst development (i.e., a local collapse of the land surface due to ice-rich permafrost thaw). A dynamic quantification of thermokarst development – still poorly constrained – is therefore a critical prerequisite for predictive models of permafrost carbon balance in these areas. This requires high-resolution mapping, as lowland thermokarst development induces fine-scale spatial variability (~50 – 100 cm). Here we provide such a quantification, updated for the Stordalen mire in Abisko, Sweden for the Stordalen mire, Abisko, Sweden (68°21'20"N 19°02'38"E), which displays a gradient from well-drained stable palsas to inundated fens, which have undergone ground subsidence. We produced RGB orthomosaics and digital elevation models from very high resolution (10 cm) unoccupied aircraft system (UAS) photogrammetry as well as a spatially continuous map of soil electrical conductivity (EC) based on electromagnetic induction (EMI) measurements. We classified the land cover following the degradation gradient and derived palsa loss rates. Our findings confirm that topography is an essential parameter for determining the evolution of palsa degradation, enhancing the overall accuracy of the classification from 41 % to 77 %, with the addition of slope allowing the detection of the early stages of degradation. We show a clear acceleration of degradation for the period 2019 – 2021, with a decrease in palsa area of 0.9 – 1.1 %·a‑1 (% reduction per year relative to the entire mire) compared to previous estimates of ~0.2 %·a‑1 (1970 – 2000) and ~0.04 %·a‑1 (2000 – 2014). EMI data show that this degradation leads to an increase in soil moisture, which in turn likely decreases organic carbon geochemical stability and potentially increases methane emissions. With a palsa loss of 0.9 – 1.1 %·a‑1, we estimate accordingly that surface degradation at Stordalen might lead to a pool of 12 metric tons of organic carbon exposed annually for the topsoil (23 cm depth), of which ~25 % is mineral-interacting organic carbon. Likewise, average annual emissions would increase from ~ 7.1 g‑C·m‑2·a-1 in 2019 to ~ 7.3 g‑C·m‑2·a‑1 in 2021 for the entire mire, i.e., an increase of ~1.3 %·a-1. As topography changes due to lowland thermokarst are fine-scaled and thus not possible to detect from satellite images, circumpolar up-scaling assessments are challenging. By extending the monitoring we have conducted as part of this study to other lowland areas, it would be possible to assess the spatial variability of palsa degradation/thermokarst formation rates and thus improve estimates of net ecosystem carbon dynamics.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
Share
Maxime Thomas, Thomas Moenaert, Julien Radoux, Baptiste Delhez, Eléonore du Bois d'Aische, Maëlle Villani, Catherine Hirst, Erik Lundin, François Jonard, Sébastien Lambot, Kristof Van Oost, Veerle Vanacker, Matthias B. Siewert, Carl-Magnus Mörth, Michael W. Palace, Ruth K. Varner, Franklin B. Sullivan, Christina Herrick, and Sophie Opfergelt

Status: open (until 26 Sep 2025)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3788', Anonymous Referee #1, 18 Aug 2025 reply
Maxime Thomas, Thomas Moenaert, Julien Radoux, Baptiste Delhez, Eléonore du Bois d'Aische, Maëlle Villani, Catherine Hirst, Erik Lundin, François Jonard, Sébastien Lambot, Kristof Van Oost, Veerle Vanacker, Matthias B. Siewert, Carl-Magnus Mörth, Michael W. Palace, Ruth K. Varner, Franklin B. Sullivan, Christina Herrick, and Sophie Opfergelt

Data sets

Unmanned Aerial Imagery over Stordalen Mire, Northern Sweden, 2014 M. Palace et al. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/SJKV4T

Unmanned Aerial Imagery over Stordalen Mire, Northern Sweden, 2015 M. Palace et al. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/NUXE30

Unmanned Aerial Imagery over Stordalen Mire, Northern Sweden, 2016 M. Palace et al. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/IAXSRD

Unmanned Aerial Imagery over Stordalen Mire, Northern Sweden, 2017 J. DelGreco et al. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/NZWLHE

Unmanned Aerial Imagery over Stordalen Mire, Northern Sweden, 2018 M. Palace et al. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/2JXWVW

UAV - RGB orthomosaic from Stordalen, 2019-08-16 Abisko Scientific Research Station, Swedish Infrastructure for Ecosystem Science (SITES) https://hdl.handle.net/11676.1/U4o8KrPkEiKw5RsfiCJZeEgX

RGB orthomosaic, digital surface model and slope over Stordalen Mire, Northern Sweden, 2021 M. Thomas et al. https://doi.org/10.14428/DVN/MGNYNN

Unmanned Aerial Imagery over Stordalen Mire, Northern Sweden, 2022 M. Palace et al. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/G9Y8WC

Model code and software

Accelerated lowland thermokarst development revealed by UAS photogrammetric surveys in the Stordalen mire, Abisko, Sweden M. Thomas et al. https://doi.org/10.14428/DVN/SX6TYV

Maxime Thomas, Thomas Moenaert, Julien Radoux, Baptiste Delhez, Eléonore du Bois d'Aische, Maëlle Villani, Catherine Hirst, Erik Lundin, François Jonard, Sébastien Lambot, Kristof Van Oost, Veerle Vanacker, Matthias B. Siewert, Carl-Magnus Mörth, Michael W. Palace, Ruth K. Varner, Franklin B. Sullivan, Christina Herrick, and Sophie Opfergelt

Viewed

Total article views: 718 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
692 20 6 718 33 35
  • HTML: 692
  • PDF: 20
  • XML: 6
  • Total: 718
  • BibTeX: 33
  • EndNote: 35
Views and downloads (calculated since 15 Aug 2025)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 15 Aug 2025)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 712 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 712 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 04 Sep 2025
Download
Short summary
This study examines the rate of permafrost degradation, in the form of the transition from intact well-drained palsa to fully thawed and inundated fen at the Stordalen mire, Abisko, Sweden. Across the 14 hectares of the palsa mire, we demonstrate a 5-fold acceleration of the degradation in 2019–2021 compared to previous periods (1970–2014) which might lead to a pool of 12 metric tons of organic carbon exposed annually for the topsoil (23 cm depth), and an increase of ~1.3%/year of GHG emissions.
Share