the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The impact of synoptic meteorology on observed surface heat fluxes over the Southern Ocean
Abstract. A 14-year climatology of the bulk sensible and latent heat fluxes (SHF and LHF) made from the Southern Ocean Flux Station (SOFS) is analyzed with respect to the synoptic meteorology and mesoscale cellular convection (MCC). A K-means clustering algorithm identified five synoptic regimes: High Pressure/Ridging (HPR), Tasman Blocking High (TBH), Zonal, Frontal, and Cold Air Advection (CAA). Among these, CAA showed the strongest air-sea coupling, with mean SHF of -40.4 W/m² and LHF of -131.0 W/m², which are 3.5 and 2 times greater than the overall mean, respectively. This striking increase in fluxes during CAA is associated with a high marine cold-air outbreak index (M-index) and weak inversion coupled with cold and dry air transport towards SOFS by the strong south-westerly wind. The SOFS measurements are also employed to evaluate ERA5 fluxes, finding that ERA5 accurately represents the observed bulk SHF and LHF, with a mean bias of 1.6 W/m² for SHF and -6.2 W/m² for LHF, along with significant correlation coefficients of r=0.9 and 0.92, respectively. Turning to open and closed MCC, relatively weak differences in the fluxes are observed between these two states, suggesting that the SHF and LHF are not the primary drivers in the transition between open and closed MCC. In open MCC, SHF and LHF show a strong correlation with the M-index, while closed MCC is associated with a stable atmosphere with a strong inversion, where the M-index relationship with surface fluxes is weak.
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3776', Anonymous Referee #1, 01 Sep 2025
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RC2: 'Reply on RC1', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Sep 2025
The manuscript presents an insightful analysis of the modulation of air–sea interaction over the Southern Ocean (142°E, 47°S) associated with synoptic-scale weather regimes. The study identifies five major weather regimes using a K-means clustering approach applied to ERA5 reanalysis data. The first section describes the characteristics of the regimes and their impacts on surface fluxes and boundary-layer stability. The second section examines how these regimes influence boundary-layer clouds and the variability of air–sea interaction in open and closed mesoscale cellular convection (MCC). Overall, the manuscript is well-written and focused; however, there are a few points that could further improve the clarity, structure, and completeness of the work. So I would recommend minor revisions before accepting for publication with the following comments to address:
1. Introduction- One of the key focuses of the study is to assess air–sea interactions and boundary-layer instability under open and closed MCC conditions. However, the Introduction provides limited details on the cloud characteristics of MCC. It is recommended that the authors expand this section to contextualise better MCC features and their relevance to air–sea coupling.
- Additional references on the link between synoptic storms should be included. eg. (https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039386)
- While ERA5 data are central to the analysis, the manuscript would benefit from a more detailed description of the ERA5 dataset (e.g., resolution, temporal coverage, and specific variables used).
- The rationale for selecting ERA5, rather than other available reanalysis products, should be explicitly discussed. Providing a short justification for the choice of ERA5 (e.g., its higher resolution, improved representation of fluxes, or suitability for Southern Ocean studies) would strengthen the methodological framework.
- In Figure 1, trajectory analyses are shown. The manuscript should specify which ERA5 variables were used in the trajectory calculations to enhance transparency and reproducibility.
- The comparison between observed buoy fluxes and ERA5 reanalysis fluxes is currently explained across two separate sections. It is suggested that this material be consolidated under a single subheading. This will improve readability and allow the reader to more easily understand how ERA5 fluxes differ from observations across the identified synoptic regimes and boundary-layer conditions.
- Figure 1 caption is inaccurate: it currently refers to “(k–m)” but should read “(k–o).”
- Tables 1 and 2: Please indicate the units in the caption.
- Line 162: Replace “SOFSS” with “SOFS”
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3776-RC2
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RC2: 'Reply on RC1', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Sep 2025
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RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3776', Anonymous Referee #3, 20 Sep 2025
General comments
The study presents an interesting analysis of air–sea fluxes derived from observations over the Southern Ocean over a 14-year period. The authors applied unsupervised clustering using the k-means technique to identify five distinct weather regimes in the study region. They examined how air–sea fluxes vary across these regimes and during open and closed multi-cellular convection events. Additionally, they conducted a detailed evaluation of relevant variables and fluxes from the ERA-5 reanalysis against observational data from the SOFS site.
Overall, this is an important study that provides valuable insights. However, the manuscript would benefit from some restructuring, further clarification in key areas, and a more clearly articulated motivation. I therefore recommend a minor revision and invite the authors to address the following comments.
Major comments
- The need for evaluating ERA-5 derived fluxes is not sufficiently substantiated in the introduction. Additionally, the current structure of the manuscript does not clearly justify the inclusion of the ERA-5 evaluation, as the authors present the evaluation and clustering results simultaneously. Presenting the ERA-5 evaluation first, followed by the clustering analysis, would be a more logical approach. This would allow the authors to better justify the use of ERA-5 data in the clustering analysis. This is only a suggestion, and I leave it to the authors to decide on the structure they feel is most appropriate.
- L75–80: The authors averaged the 1-minute observations to hourly data to facilitate comparison with ERA-5. However, several variables in the ERA-5 archive, such as the 2m air temperature, MSLP, and relative humidity, etc. are provided as hourly instantaneous values rather than hourly averages. It is unclear whether the authors used the instantaneous or averaged fields in their analysis, particularly when comparing with the SOFS observations. Please ensure that all datasets are consistent in terms of temporal scale, and clarify this explicitly in the methods section.
- The authors need to provide more detailed information about the buoy observations. It is unclear whether the ERA-5 fields and the buoy data were compared at the same height levels, and whether any interpolation was applied. Please clarify this in the methods section.
- I feel it would be great if the authors included a diagnostic plot such as an elbow plot or silhouette analysis to support their choice of five clusters in the k-means classification.
Minor comments
- L31: Correct citation to ERA5 is Hersbach et al. 2020 not Dee et al.
- L50-51: Bharti et al. is cited twice.
- L50-53: I feel it would be helpful for readers if the authors mentioned which dataset Bharti et al. used in their study.
- L61-62: SST is already defined above.
- Some of the constants/variables described after Eqn 1 and 2 did not appear as they are used (Cp, CH, etc.). Please correct them.
- Section 2.2, and everywhere else: I think a more appropriate usage would be k-means instead of k-mean (this is also in line with the original paper by Hartigan and Wong, 1979) as the technique involves computing means corresponding to multiple clusters.
- Fig 1: How are the skewT-logP diagrams plotted? From ERA-5 at the nearest grid point to the buoy? Please mention this in the manuscript and the figure caption.
- I couldn’t follow much on the back-trajectory spatial map. I understand that the shading indicate the parcel frequency. How’s it calculated? Please mention this.
- Fig 1 caption: The back trajectories are shown in subplots “k-o”, right? It’s written as “k-m”. Please check and correct.
- L158: I’m not sure I’d describe it as “near-saturated” between 1000—500mb. Lower troposphere (up to ~850mb) is indeed near-saturated.
- L162: Change “SOFSS” to “SOFS”
- I liked Fig 6 — it’s really useful!
- Section 3.1 and Fig 4: does it worth showing SST-AT gradient and the moisture gradient as well? I think that might be useful as the authors mention that the cold bias in ERA5 is contributing to a negative bias in SHF.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3776-RC3
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- 1
Using measurements performed with a buoy situated to the south west of Tasmania in the southern ocean, the authors explore the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes during five dominant weather regimes. These regimes are determined using a k-means clustering technique applied to a series of meteorological variables obtained with ERA5.
The goals are to first perform an evaluation of ERA5 surface fluxes, and they find a relatively good agreement between reanalysis and observations, albeit with the tendency for ERA5 to slightly overestimate the magnitude of the fluxes. Second they explore the occurrence of open and closed mesoscale cellular convection (MCC) clouds at that location and how they relate to their environment. They find little differences in surface fluxes between times when open cell MCCs dominate and those when closed cell MCCs do. They conclude that synoptic meteorology has a greater impact on the dominant MCC type than the air-sea contrast.
This is an interesting study on a topic that is undergoing active research, namely boundary layer clouds in the southern oceans, and how they interact with their environment, specifically in conditions of cold air outbreak. Having also an evaluation of ERA5, a widely used reanalysis, in a region with few observations is also of merit.
However, there are a number of weaknesses in the manuscript in its present form that call for major revisions before this can be accepted for publications. The main issues are:
Specific comments:
More specifically, it is not clear if the surface latent and sensible heat fluxes are calculated by the authors or provided as an output. This is important as it is not clear presently if the input for the flux calculation are at the same atmospheric level for the buoy versus ERA5. And fluxes change if the wind, T, q are at 2m or at 10 m, or some other level. As presented in the manuscript, one wonders if discrepancies between buoys (that are usually measuring at 2-4m) and reanalysis (that often uses 10m as the level of reference) are simply caused by slight differences in where winds are collected.
Also, Figure 1 includes profiles, but I could not find any information on where they are obtained. I assume these are from ERA5 but even the figure caption does not say. This should also be mentioned in this subsection on ERA5. How are the profiles averaged? Is there some fixed level that is used as an anchor for the averaging as in Norris (1998)?
the trajectories are not discussed for the first 3 regimes it seems.
Line 180, M is high in MCAOs as should be expected given it is the index used to identify MCAOs. The values obtained here are close to those discussed in Fletcher et al (2016a, 2026b) who chose 800 hPa (close to the 850 hPa chosen here) to have M > 0 K as the threshold for flagging an MCAO occurrence. EIS is low because there is no inversion, this is expected.
Regarding Fig 5, since M and EIS are so strongly inverse correlated, it might make things simpler to pick one variable and not have both? EIS is more appropriate for regimes where an inversion is present, and M is more appropriate for CAAs. This should be taken into account/discussed. The weaker fluxes in the periods of warm air advection is also discussed in other studies, e.g. Naud et al. 2021, 2023 show a strong contrast in fluxes across cold fronts with large fluxes in the post-cold frontal region of extratropical cyclones versus weaker fluxes in the warm sector.
Line 196: the relationship between fluxes and M is also to be expected as M describes the transition between stable and unstable conditions, therefore from larger to lower cloud cover, and weak to strong fluxes.
question: are the biases in wind a function of wind speed? Same question for biases in T, q? this could help explain the variations with season? Also could this explain the different biases in fluxes across the weather regimes (c.f. L 222)?
Typos:
Line 50: Barthi et al (2019) is repeated.
Line 162: “SOFSS” should be “SOFS”
References:
Bodas-Salcedo A., K. D. Williams, M. A. Ringer, I. Beau, J. N. S. Cole, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Koshiro, B. Stevens, Z. Wang, and T. Yokohata, 2014: Origins of the solar radiation biases over the Southern Ocean in CFMIP2 Models. J. Climate, 27, 41-56, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00169.1
Fletcher, J. K., S. Mason and C. Jakob (2016a). The climatology, meteorology and boundary layer structure of marine cold air outbreaks in both hemispheres. J. Climate, 29, 1999-2014, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0268.1.
Fletcher, J. K., S. Mason and C. Jakob (2016b). A climatology of clouds in marine cold air outbreaks in both hemispheres. J. Climate, 29, 6677-6692,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0783.1.
Hersbach H. and co-authors, 2020: The ERA5 global reanalysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 146, 1999-2049, doi:10.1002/qj.3803.
Naud C. M., J. A. Crespo, and D. J. Posselt, 2021: On the relationship between CYGNSS surface heat fluxes and the life cyclone of low-latitude ocean extratropical cyclones. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 60, 1575-1590, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-21-0074.1.
Naud, C.M., J.A. Crespo, D.J. Posselt, and J.F. Booth, 2023: Cloud and precipitation in low-latitude extratropical cyclones conditionally sorted on CYGNSS surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. J. Climate, 36, no. 16, 5659-5680, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0600.1.
Norris J. R., 1998: Low cloud type over the ocean from surface observations. Part I: replationship to surface meteorology and the vertical distribution of temperature and moisture. J. Climate, 11, p369-382.
Papritz et al, 2015, A climatology of cold air outbreaks and their impact on air-sea heat fluxes in the high-latitude south Pacific, JCLI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00482.1
Seethala, C., P. Zuidema, J. Edson, M. Brunke, G. Chen, X.-Y. Li, D. Painemal, C. Robinson, T. Shingler, M. Shook, A. Sorooshian, L. Thornhill, F. Tornow, H. Wang, X. Zeng, and L. Ziemba, 2021: On assessing ERA5 and MERRA2 representations of cold-air outbreaks across the Gulf Stream. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, no. 19, e2021GL094364, doi:10.1029/2021GL094364.
Trenberth K. E. and J. Fasullo, 2010: Simulation of present day and 21st century energy budgets of the southern oceans, J. Climate, 23, 440-454
Zelinka, M. D., Myers, T. A., McCoy, D. T., Po-Chedley, S., Caldwell, P. M., Ceppi, P., et al., 2020: Causes of higher climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2019GL085782. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085782.