Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3690
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3690
13 Aug 2025
 | 13 Aug 2025

The Observed Evolution of Arctic Amplification over the Past 45 Years

Mark C. Serreze, Elizabeth Cassano, Alex Crawford, John J. Cassano, and Chen Zhang

Abstract. To address research gaps in understanding Arctic Amplification, we use data from ERA5 and sea ice concentration to examine the seasonal, spatial and decadal evolutuion of Arctic 2-meter and lower tropospheric temperatures and lower tropospheric (surface to 850 hPa) static stability over the past 45 years. A Local Amplification Anomaly (LAA) metric is used to examine how spatial patterns of Arctic 2-meter temperature anomalies compare to anomalies for the globe as a whole. Pointing to impacts of seasonally-delayed albedo feedback, growing areas of end-of-summer (September) open water largely co-locate with the strongest positive anomlies of 2-meter temperatures through autumn and winter and their growth through time; small summer trends reflect the effects of a melting sea ice cover. Because of seasonal ice growth, the association between rising 2-meter temperatures and sea ice weakens from autumn into winter, except in the the Barents Sea where there have been prominent downward trends in winter ice extent. Imprints of variable atmospheric circulation are prominent in the Arctic temperature evolution. Low-level (surface to 850 hPa) stability over the Arctic increases from autumn through winter, consistent with the greater depth of surface-based atmospheric heating seen in autumn. However, trends towards weaker static stability dominate the Arctic Ocean in autumn and winter, especially over areas of September and wintertime ice loss. Sea ice thinning, leading to increased conductive heat fluxes though the ice, likely also contributes to reduced stability.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

20 Jan 2026
The observed evolution of Arctic amplification over the past 45 years
Mark C. Serreze, Elizabeth Cassano, Alex Crawford, John J. Cassano, and Chen Zhang
The Cryosphere, 20, 411–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-411-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-411-2026, 2026
Short summary
Mark C. Serreze, Elizabeth Cassano, Alex Crawford, John J. Cassano, and Chen Zhang

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3690', Anonymous Referee #1, 07 Sep 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3690', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 Sep 2025
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3690', Anonymous Referee #3, 16 Sep 2025

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3690', Anonymous Referee #1, 07 Sep 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3690', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 Sep 2025
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-3690', Anonymous Referee #3, 16 Sep 2025

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (28 Oct 2025) by Stephen Howell
AR by Chen Zhang on behalf of the Authors (19 Nov 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (23 Nov 2025) by Stephen Howell
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (24 Nov 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (28 Nov 2025)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (08 Dec 2025) by Stephen Howell
AR by Chen Zhang on behalf of the Authors (12 Dec 2025)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

20 Jan 2026
The observed evolution of Arctic amplification over the past 45 years
Mark C. Serreze, Elizabeth Cassano, Alex Crawford, John J. Cassano, and Chen Zhang
The Cryosphere, 20, 411–425, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-411-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-411-2026, 2026
Short summary
Mark C. Serreze, Elizabeth Cassano, Alex Crawford, John J. Cassano, and Chen Zhang

Data sets

ERA5 Reanalysis (0.25 Degree Latitude-Longitude Grid) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts https://doi.org/10.5065/BH6N-5N20

Sea Ice Concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS Passive Microwave Data, Version 2 N. E. DiGirolamo et al. https://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0051/versions/2

Mark C. Serreze, Elizabeth Cassano, Alex Crawford, John J. Cassano, and Chen Zhang

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Short summary
The outsized warming of the Arctic relative to the globe as a whole (Arctic Amplification, AA) is largest in in autumn and winter, consistent with large transfers of energy from growing areas of open water. Impacts of variable atmospheric circulation are also prominent. AA is small in summer due to the melting sea ice cover. Warming penetrates higher into the atmosphere in autumn compared to winter, but trends towards weaker stability could enable deeper heating as AA further evolves.
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