Detection of Compound and Seesaw Hydrometeorological Extremes in New Zealand: A Copula-Based Approach
Abstract. Compound hot and dry and dry-to-wet seesaw events are hydrometeorological extremes that involve the propagation of water deficits through the hydrological cycle, driven by multiple interactions between precipitation, temperature and soil moisture. Here we demonstrate new understanding of such events gained by directly modelling these interactions using copulas rather than treating each variable separately. New Zealand makes for a useful case study, owing to the occurrence of relatively high-magnitude extremes across strong hydroclimatic gradients. Standardised indices are constructed for soil moisture, temperature and precipitation using ERA5-Land for 1950–2021. A conventional bivariate copula model is used to capture the joint variation between precipitation and soil moisture indices for seesaw events, with a more novel trivariate (vine) copula for modelling all three indices during compound events. Differences in compound event detection are strongest in eastern regions, where evapotranspiration is more important for dry phase development. The copula approach reveals more frequent/extreme occurrence of compound events compared to coincident extremes in separate variables: for a 1-in-100-year vine copula event the equivalent magnitude coincident soil moisture and temperature extreme is a 141-year event (171-year for the coincident precipitation-temperature event). Large differences in seesaw event detection also occur in the east: compared to a 1-in-100-year bivariate copula event the equivalent soil moisture extreme is less frequent (126 years) but the precipitation extreme more frequent (65 years). These results highlight the advances that a copula approach can provide in terms of better understanding the magnitude-frequency characteristics of compound and seesaw events, as well as their drivers – critically important for managing the impacts of these events, especially in the context of climate change.
Bennet et al. compare different approaches to detect compound and seesaw events across New Zealand, particularly focusing on the potential value of using multivariate copula-based approaches. They recommend using multivariate indices (incl. soil moisture metrics) for assessing compound hot-dry events, whereas the selection of indices for seesaw events may depend on the hydrological domain (i.e., drought type or dry phase) investigated. The manuscript is a valuable contribution to research on compound events and is for the most part well written. Nevertheless, it would benefit from some corrections outlined below, which the authors may want to consider. Overall, I would recommend publication subject to major revisions.
General comments
Minor comments
Line 62: This sentence may rather fit into the paragraph talking about copulas (Line 50 and following)
Line 79: “new insights” is a somewhat vague formulation and may be replaced with a more specific objective (see also first general comment)
Line 107: It would be helpful for the reader if the authors would provide the equations for the respective calculated indices
Line 159: When describing the Standardised Multivariate Index (SMI), it may be beneficial to shortly repeat the original variables (precipitation, …) contained in the copula data which are then represented by the index
Line 193: The description of the averaging process at each grid cell is partly unclear (“taking the mean” of what exactly?) and a more thorough explanation would be valuable
Line 206: The authors may provide a short explanation of why 14 days were chosen as a threshold length for the compound event duration
Line 260: Here, the authors may briefly mention variations of the run theory metrics between the North and South Island (in terms of the coincident SSMI and STI approach), as is also displayed in Figure 3b and 3e
Line 363: “longer transition time” compared to which approaches? It becomes clear from Figure 8, but it would be beneficial to shortly mention the two other approaches in this sentence
Line 423: This sentence is rather long and may be split
Line 506: This paragraph may be moved to the Results section
Line 548: The authors may consider renaming this section “Summary and conclusions”, as the text up until line 572 reads like a summary
Line 581: This sentence is rather long and may be split
Technical points