Recovery under consecutive disasters: how recovery dynamics shape societal resilience

Abstract. Consecutive disasters, where two or more disasters occur in succession before recovery from the first event has been completed, can have non-linear impacts on societies that can surpass the effects isolated events. Drawing on empirical examples and insights from scientific literature, we explore how consecutive disasters affect societal recovery across four interconnected pillars of society: human settlements, human health, economic systems, and socio-political systems. We identify pathways through which repeated disasters can either erode a community's ability to effectively respond to and recover from disasters or provide opportunities for social learning and positive change. By examining both immediate and long-term effects, we show how societies might be pushed towards critical tipping points, resulting in either a systemic breakdown of societal resilience, or transformative adaptation and improved capacity to manage future risks. Recognising these dynamics underscores the need for a long-term, multi-hazard approach to disaster risk reduction. Recovery planning must move beyond short-term, reactive measures toward integrated, forward-looking strategies, supported by reliable, proactive, and equitable financing mechanisms. Addressing the complexity of recovery under consecutive disasters is essential for both research and policy to enable adaptive, resilient societies in a future of increasingly frequent and intense hazards.