A Theory of Earthquake Prediction

Abstract. In this study, the pre-seismic strain of an earthquake is considered as a fundamental and important precursor. Based on the Voight’s equation for material failure, we theoretically investigate the physical basis on predicting the failure time, magnitude, and location of a forthcoming earthquake in terms of pre-seismic strains generated on or near the related fault where the event will happen. The log(T)–M relationship is built up. Results exhibit that the failure time depends on the strain rate and two parameters of the Voight’s equation; while the magnitude is associated with the precursor time, two parameters of the Voight’s equation, and the exponent of the scaling law between the strain and the fault length. The location of the forthcoming earthquake may be qualitatively estimated from the localities of observation sites where the pre-seismic strains are observed. In addition, the anomalous geoelectric and geochemical signals prior to earthquakes are also taken into account as precursors. Their log(T)–M relationships are derived. The precursor times of geoelectric signals and those of the geochemical signals are, respectively, the same and shorter than that of the pre-seismic strains.