Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2807
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2807
21 Jul 2025
 | 21 Jul 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for The Cryosphere (TC).

Subseasonal Forecast Improvements from Sea Ice Concentration Data Assimilation in the Antarctic

Yong-Fei Zhang, Mitchell Bushuk, Michael Winton, William Gregory, Bill Hurlin, Liwei Jia, and Feiyu Lu

Abstract. This study evaluates the impact of sea ice concentration (SIC) data assimilation (DA) on subseasonal forecasts of Antarctic sea ice by comparing reforecast experiment suites initialized from two sets of initial conditions (ICs): one with SIC DA and the other without. The two ICs are evaluated against NSIDC SIC observations. Results show that the SIC DA significantly improves the climatology and interannual variability of the SIC IC. The improvement in sea ice ICs is more considerable in the Antarctic than in the Arctic. The sea ice thickness (SIT) field is mostly thinner after SIC DA except for the interior Weddell and Ross sectors. The results from reforecast experiments show that SIC DA improves the subseasonal forecast skill of Antarctic SIC in almost all initialization months except December and January, where the initial improvement is soon overtaken by the bias likely linked to the thin SIT bias. We also demonstrate that SIC DA improves the probabilistic prediction of the sea ice edge position at subseasonal time scales. The subseasonal reforecast skill of Antarctic SIC and the sea ice edge is improved the most in spring, followed by winter and summer, and has minor differences in autumn. The skill improvement associated with SIC DA is more significant in the Antarctic than the Arctic, consistent with the IC improvement. Our study demonstrates the critical role of SIC DA in the subseasonal prediction of Antarctic sea ice.

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Yong-Fei Zhang, Mitchell Bushuk, Michael Winton, William Gregory, Bill Hurlin, Liwei Jia, and Feiyu Lu

Status: open (until 15 Sep 2025)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2807', Kenneth Hughes, 06 Aug 2025 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2807', Anonymous Referee #2, 01 Sep 2025 reply
Yong-Fei Zhang, Mitchell Bushuk, Michael Winton, William Gregory, Bill Hurlin, Liwei Jia, and Feiyu Lu
Yong-Fei Zhang, Mitchell Bushuk, Michael Winton, William Gregory, Bill Hurlin, Liwei Jia, and Feiyu Lu

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Short summary
Antarctic sea ice has shifted from its steady increasing trend in the past decades to the recent decline, which attracted attention from the research community. Providing more accurate subseasonal predictions of Antarctic sea ice is critical to manage the accelerating human activities. We demonstrate that by incorporating satellite observations of sea ice concentration with modeling, the subseasonal predictions of Antarctic sea ice can be improved significantly.
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