Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-279
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-279
07 Feb 2025
 | 07 Feb 2025

An explainable deep learning model based on hydrological principles for flood simulation and forecasting

Xin Xiang, Shenglian Guo, Chenglong Li, and Yun Wang

Abstract. Deep learning (DL) models always perform well in hydrological simulation but lack physical-based principles. To address this gap, we integrate the runoff generation and flow routing principals of Xinanjiang (XAJ) model into the architecture of recurrent neural network (RNN) units and establish a physical-based XAJRNN neural network layer. Subsequently, this layer is fused with LSTM layers to construct an explainable deep learning (EDL) model, which underwent testing at the Lushui River and Qingjiang River basins in China. Compared to benchmark models, the proposed EDL model performs very well, the average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE)values for these two basins are 0.98 and 0.94, respectively. The small flood peak relative errors (PRE) and peak timing difference (∆T) close to zero demonstrate that the EDL model can accuracy simulate flood events. Notably, the EDL model not only enhances simulation accuracy over ordinary DL models but also enhances interpretability by incorporating physical principles, thereby offering fresh insights for the fusion of DL and hydrological models for flood simulation and forecasting.

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Xin Xiang, Shenglian Guo, Chenglong Li, and Yun Wang

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-279', Anonymous Referee #1, 11 Mar 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Shenglian Guo, 21 Mar 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-279', Anonymous Referee #2, 12 Mar 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Shenglian Guo, 21 Mar 2025
Xin Xiang, Shenglian Guo, Chenglong Li, and Yun Wang
Xin Xiang, Shenglian Guo, Chenglong Li, and Yun Wang

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Short summary
Deep learning models excel in hydrological simulations but lack physical foundations. We combine the Xinanjiang model’s principles into recurrent neural network units, forming a physical-based XAJRNN layer. Combined with LSTM layers, we propose an explainable deep learning model. The model shows low peak errors and minimal timing differences. The model improves accuracy and interpretability, offering new insights for combining deep learning and hydrological models in flood forecasting.
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