Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2326
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2326
28 May 2025
 | 28 May 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).

Diagnosing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in density space is critical in warmer climates

Fernanda DI Alzira Oliveira Matos, Dmitry Sidorenko, Xiaoxu Shi, Lars Ackermann, Janini Pereira, Gerrit Lohmann, and Christian Stepanek

Abstract. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a crucial role in shaping the global climate system by redistributing heat and influencing large-scale climate patterns. Using the AWI-CM3 model, we compare the AMOC strength under pre-industrial and abrupt4xCO2 scenarios derived in depth (z-AMOC) and density (ρ-AMOC) space. Water mass transformations are assessed to analyze the impact of background climate on surface-induced and interior-mixing-induced transformations. We find that both location and strength of AMOC maximum are directly affected by the framework choice. AMOC weakening is seen under 4xCO2 forcing in both frameworks, but with only z-AMOC showing recovery, whereas ρ-AMOC oscillates around the minimum value that is reached after the spinup phase of 50 years. The variability of the z-AMOC maximum in the pre-industrial scenario correlates only with that at 26° N due to the flattening of isopycnals into constant depth levels in the subpolar North Atlantic. Diagnosing ρ-AMOC reveals a shutdown of interior mixing induced water transformations. This is absent in z-AMOC, which only shows weakened vertical fluxes. Despite different mechanisms, all timeseries are highly correlated under 4xCO2, indicating major density shifts. This is evident from weakening of downward diapycnal velocities at deep convection sites. This shutdown is attributed to the decline (increase) of heat (freshwater) flux contribution to surface-forced diapycnal water transformations, as a result of sea-ice melt and reduced poleward ocean heat transport to the subpolar North Atlantic. In contrast, the analysis of vertical velocities, used to derive z-AMOC, only reveals a general weakening of vertical fluxes, both upward and downward. Thus, z-AMOC and ρ-AMOC weakens, but driven by different mechanisms. Our results highlight the importance of diagnosing AMOC in density space, particularly in warmer climates. We recommend broader adoption of ρ-AMOC diagnostics across models and timescales to improve the understanding of AMOC response to climate change.

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Fernanda DI Alzira Oliveira Matos, Dmitry Sidorenko, Xiaoxu Shi, Lars Ackermann, Janini Pereira, Gerrit Lohmann, and Christian Stepanek

Status: open (until 23 Jul 2025)

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Fernanda DI Alzira Oliveira Matos, Dmitry Sidorenko, Xiaoxu Shi, Lars Ackermann, Janini Pereira, Gerrit Lohmann, and Christian Stepanek
Fernanda DI Alzira Oliveira Matos, Dmitry Sidorenko, Xiaoxu Shi, Lars Ackermann, Janini Pereira, Gerrit Lohmann, and Christian Stepanek

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Short summary
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is responsible for about 25 % of the poleward ocean heat transport. Currently, the AMOC strength is mostly calculated in depth space (z-AMOC). However, we argue that, in warmer climates, the AMOC should be calculated in density space (ρ-AMOC). We performed simulations with CO2 forcing of 280 ppmv (PI) and 1120 ppmv of (4xCO2) and find that ρ-AMOC provides more physical and meaningful information about the AMOC in warmer climates.
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