the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
| 02 Jun 2025
Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b, group I and II)
Abstract. This paper describes the climate-related forcings (CRFs) provided within the 'b' part of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b). While ISIMIP3a comprises historical impact models simulations forced by observational CRF and direct human forcings (DHF), the ISIMIP3b CRFs are based on climate model simulations generated within the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In a first set of experiments (ISIMIP3b, group I) the CMIP6-based CRFs for the historical period are combined with historical observation-based DHF also considered in ISIMIP3a (e.g. land use patterns, water and agricultural management, and fishing efforts). These group I simulations allow for the quantification of impacts of historical climate change by comparison to simulations where the observational DHF are combined with simulated pre-industrial CRFs. In addition, the impacts of observed changes in CRFs can be compared to the impacts of simulated changes in CRFs by comparing the ISIMIP3a simulations to the ISIMIP3b, group I simulations. The second group of experiments (ISIMIP3b, group II) comprises future projections assuming constant observational direct human forcings at 2015 levels to estimate the impact of climate change given today’s direct human influences for the low emission scenario SSP1-2.6, the high and the very high emission scenarios SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5, respectively. The very high emissions scenarios and the assumption of fixed present day direct human forcings particularly allow for testing the scalability of impacts in terms of global temperature change. The provided CRFs comprise atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations, atmospheric and oceanic climate data, coastal water levels, tropical cyclone tracks and their associated wind speed and precipitation fields. In addition to the CRFs data, this paper describes the experiments belonging to group I and II and the rationale behind them. Another set of future projections accounting for changing DHFs (ISIMIP3b, group III) is in preparation and will be described in another paper.
Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Geoscientific Model Development.
Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.- Preprint
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CEC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2103 - No compliance with the policy of the journal', Juan Antonio Añel, 23 Jun 2025
Dear authors,
Unfortunately, after checking your manuscript, it has come to our attention that it does not comply with our "Code and Data Policy".
https://www.geoscientific-model-development.net/policies/code_and_data_policy.htmlAfter checking your manuscript and its "Code and data availability" statement several outstanding issues arise.
First, the section states "The MIT data on tropical cyclone tracks with wind and precipitation fields data shall be used for non‐commercial research or academic purposes only. Data can be made available by the ISIMIP team upon written consent by Kerry Emanuel (MIT, email: emanuel@mit.edu)". Dr. Emanuel is a co-author of this submitted manuscript, therefore, it does not make any sense to point out to readers to contact somebody that is co-author to get access to the mentioned data. Therefore, you must publish the mentioned data in one of the repositories acceptable according to our policy, and reply to this comment with its link and permanent identifier. If some kind of law or regulation prevents you of sharing such data, then you need to provide us with evidence of it, and we will study the possibility of granting you an exception to it.
Second, you state "All other input data described are available for participating modelers with a respective account from the DKRZ server." This information is not enough. We can accept the DKRZ servers as hosting service for the repositories containing the mentioned data, but you must provide specific information (links and permanent identifiers) for all of them. I am aware that you communicated internally before that "The described data includes >1000 data sets that are comprised in quite a number of DOIs. Should we cite all these DOIs here again?". If with your question you were referring to these datasets, the answer to your question if you have used them to produce your manuscript, is "yes". A potential solution for this is that you deposit a document containing such information in a permanent repository and you link in the manuscript such repository (with its link and permanent identifier).
Also, you state that "Data will be made publicly available... at the ISIMIP data repository at https://data.isimip.org/". First, we can not accept expressions of future compliance with our policy. The policy of the journal is very clear that compliance with code and data availability must be assured before submitting a manuscript to the journal. Therefore, you must publish all the datasets, as they should have been published before submission, and your manuscript desk rejected instead of accepted for Discussions because of such lack of compliance.
A major problem is that you host your data in the ISIMIP data portal, managed by the PIK. You state that it complies with the policy of the journal, but it does not comply. I have checked the ISIMIP webpage and terms of use. First, we do not have any kind of guarantee that the PIK servers comply with our requirements for long-term archival, usually requested in at least 15-20 years of secured funding to operate. The ISIMIP portal is simply a subdomain of pik-postdam.de, operating under the same IP address than the PIK webpage. Second, you state that data removal has to be approved by the ISIMIP steering committee, but my understanding is that this is basically the list of authors contributing to this manuscript, which actually means that the authors can decide to remove the data, and this is not acceptable according to the policy of the journal. Also, the "ISIMIP data team" is mentioned, but it is not clear at all who are the persons in such committee or how it operates. From the structure published in the ISIMIP web page, it looks like if only one person is involved on it, identified as the "ISIMIP data manager".
In summary, there are many outstanding issues regarding your manuscript and its compliance with the policy of the journal, and the fact that it is under review and Discussions without having properly addressed all of them is irregular. Therefore, please, publish the necessary data in one of the repositories listed in our policy and reply to this comment as soon as possible with a modified 'Code and Data Availability' section for your manuscript, which must include the relevant information (link and handle or DOI) of the new repositories, and which you should include in a potentially reviewed manuscript.
I must note that if you do not fix this problem, we will have to reject your manuscript for publication in our journal.
Juan A. Añel
Geosci. Model Dev. Executive EditorCitation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2103-CEC1 -
AC1: 'Reply on CEC1', Martin Park, 26 Jun 2025
Dear Juan,
thanks so much for your careful check and the issues you raise. We are currently fixing the raised issues and working on a point-by-point reply, though, this will take some more time.
On behalf of the author team, Martin Park
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2103-AC1
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AC1: 'Reply on CEC1', Martin Park, 26 Jun 2025
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2103', Anonymous Referee #1, 30 Jun 2025
This paper describes the setup of the scenario and the climate-related forcings for ISIMIP3b. I truly appreciate the significant efforts made by the authors. The paper is important, interesting, and well written. I have a few comments.
Major comment
L511-525: The five representative ESMs include a hot model (UKESM1-0-LL). It has been suggested that the “hot model” issue of the CMIP6 ensemble can cause overestimation of impact assessments (Hausfather et al 2022, Shiogama et al. 2022a). It depends on the variables and regions whether the hot model overestimates future change projections (Tokarska et al. 2020, Paik et al. 2023, McDonnell et al. 2024, Swaminathan et al. 2024, Li et al. 2024, Shiogama et al. 2022b, 2024, 2025). Although the internal variability component of the tropical Pacific surface warming pattern can affect the evaluation of “hot models” (Liang et al. 2024), the relative contributions of forced changes and internal variability to the observed tropical Pacific surface warming pattern are highly uncertain (Watanabe et al. 2024). Therefore, at least, please discuss the possible influence of the “hot model” issue on impact assessments of ISIMIP3b.
Minor comments
L98: ISIMIP3 -> ISIMIP3b?
Table 2 (page 13, pre‐industrial control, 2015soc, 1st priority): Please omit “ensi”.
Figure 4: Can you add the plot of bias correction data of the historical simulation? It would be a good example to show hot bias-correction reduced the bias.
L808: “the Global Surge and Tide Model (GTSM) model” -> the Global Surge and Tide Model (GTSM)”?
References
Hausfather Z, Marvel K, Schmidt G A, Nielsen-Gammon J W and Zelinka M 2022 Climate simulations: recognize the ‘hot model’ problem Nature 605 26–9
Li C, Sun Q, Wang J, Liang Y, Zwiers F W, Zhang X and Li T 2024 Constraining Projected Changes in Rare Intense Precipitation Events Across Global Land Regions Geophysical Research Letters 51 e2023GL105605
Liang Y, Gillett N P and Monahan A H 2024 Accounting for Pacific climate variability increases projected global warming Nat. Clim. Chang. 14 608–14
McDonnell A, Bauer A M and Proistosescu C 2024 To What Extent Does Discounting ‘Hot’ Climate Models Improve the Predictive Skill of Climate Model Ensembles? Earth’s Future 12 e2024EF004844
Paik S, An S-I, Min S-K, King A D and Kim S-K 2023 Emergent constraints on future extreme precipitation intensification: from global to continental scales Weather and Climate Extremes 42 100613
Tokarska K B, Stolpe M B, Sippel S, Fischer E M, Smith C J, Lehner F and Knutti R 2020 Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models Sci. Adv. 6 eaaz9549
Shiogama H, Hayashi M, Hirota N and Ogura T 2024 Emergent Constraints on Future Changes in Several Climate Variables and Extreme Indices from Global to Regional Scales SOLA 20 122–9
Shiogama H, Hayashi M, Hirota N, Ogura T, Kim H and Watanabe M 2025 Combined emergent constraints on future extreme precipitation changes Nat Commun 16 5293
Shiogama H, Takakura J and Takahashi K 2022a Uncertainty constraints on economic impact assessments of climate change simulated by an impact emulator Environ. Res. Lett. 17 124028
Shiogama H, Watanabe M, Kim H and Hirota N 2022b Emergent constraints on future precipitation changes Nature 602 612–6
Swaminathan R, Schewe J, Walton J, Zimmermann K, Jones C, Betts R A, Burton C, Jones C D, Mengel M, Reyer C P O, Turner A G and Weigel K 2024 Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity Earth’s Future 12 e2024EF004901
Watanabe, M., Kang, S.M., Collins, M. et al. (2024) Possible shift in controls of the tropical Pacific surface warming pattern. Nature 630, 315–324.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2103-RC1 - RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2103', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Jul 2025
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