Preprints
https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.173282297.70109457/v1
https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.173282297.70109457/v1
28 Jan 2025
 | 28 Jan 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).

The Historical Representation and Near Future (2050) Projections of the Coral Sea Current System in CMIP6 HighResMIP

Jodie Anne Schlaefer, Clothilde Langlais, Severine Marie Choukroun, Mathieu Mongin, and Mark E. Baird

Abstract. The Coral Sea houses expansive coral reefs. Reef health is inextricably linked to water temperatures, which are regulated by the hydrodynamic environment. The current system in the Coral Sea is dominated by jets of the South Equatorial Current (SEC): the North Vanuatu Jet (NVJ), the North Caledonian Jet (NCJ) and the South Caledonian Jet (SCJ). We investigated the projected near-future (2050) changes in the temperature and transport structure of the Coral Sea. We utilized the three highest resolution climate models from the CMIP6 HighResMIP experiment as these models broadly captured the historical temperature and transport structure of the SEC jets, and their El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related variability. Surface warming of 0.78 °C and 1.12 °C was projected in the Coral Sea under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming, respectively. The warming signal deepened by 30 m per decade, penetrating to 400 m by 2050. This indicates the additional thermal stress that could be experienced by Coral Sea ecosystems with future global warming. Decreases in the transports of the NVJ and NCJ, and an intensification of the SCJ were projected in the HighResMIP models. While the magnitudes of the changes were relatively small (2 % to 7 % of historical means), they were similar to the variability in NVJ and NCJ transport associated with ENSO. Our analysis further shows that the transport projections of the NVJ and NCJ varied with depth, where surface intensifications coincided with the areas of greatest warming. These changes could modify upwelling dynamics on the Great Barrier Reef shelf.

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Jodie Anne Schlaefer, Clothilde Langlais, Severine Marie Choukroun, Mathieu Mongin, and Mark E. Baird

Status: open (until 25 Mar 2025)

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Jodie Anne Schlaefer, Clothilde Langlais, Severine Marie Choukroun, Mathieu Mongin, and Mark E. Baird
Jodie Anne Schlaefer, Clothilde Langlais, Severine Marie Choukroun, Mathieu Mongin, and Mark E. Baird

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Short summary
We studied how the Coral Sea and South Equatorial Current may change with climate change using high resolution models. At 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming, the Coral Sea surface was projected to warm by 0.78 °C and 1.12 °C, respectfully. Temperature increases were simulated down to 400 m. The extra heat could further stress ecosystems. Two of the South Equatorial Current jets were projected to decrease in strength and one increased, which could affect the circulation features they feed.
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