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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1640
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1640
19 May 2025
 | 19 May 2025

An information-theoretic approach to obtain ensemble averages from Earth system models

Carlos A. Sierra and Estefanía Muñoz

Abstract. Inferences in Earth system science rely to a large degree on the numerical output of multiple Earth System Models. It has been shown that for many variables of interest, the multi-model ensemble average often compares better with observations than the output from any one individual model. However, a simple arithmetic average does not reward or penalize models according to their ability to predict available observations, and for this reason, a weighted averaging approach would be preferred for those cases in which there is information on model performance. We propose an approach based on concepts from information theory with the aim to approximate the Kullback-Leibler distance between model output and unknown reality, and to assign weights to different models according to their relative likelihood of being the best-performing model in a given grid cell. This article presents the theory and describes the steps necessary for obtaining model weights in a general form, and presents an example for obtaining multi-model averages of carbon fluxes from models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP6. Using this approach, we propose a multi-model ensemble of land-atmosphere carbon exchange that could be used for inferring long-term carbon balances with much reduced uncertainties in comparison to the multi-model arithmetic average.

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Carlos A. Sierra and Estefanía Muñoz

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1640', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Jun 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Carlos Sierra, 10 Aug 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1640', Uwe Ehret, 19 Jun 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Carlos Sierra, 10 Aug 2025

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1640', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Jun 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Carlos Sierra, 10 Aug 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-1640', Uwe Ehret, 19 Jun 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Carlos Sierra, 10 Aug 2025
Carlos A. Sierra and Estefanía Muñoz

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An information-theoretic approach to obtain ensemble averages from Earth system models Carlos A. Sierra and Estefanía Muñoz https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15167572

Carlos A. Sierra and Estefanía Muñoz

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Short summary
We propose an approach to obtain weights for calculating averages of variables from Earth system models (ESM) based on concepts from information theory. It quantifies a relative distance between model output and reality, even though it is impossible to know the absolute distance from model predictions to reality. The relative ranking among models is based on concepts of model selection and multi-model averages previously developed for simple statistical models, but adapted here for ESMs.
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