Summer Greenland Blocking in observations and in SEAS5.1 seasonal forecasts: robust trend or natural variability?

Abstract. Given its impact on enhanced melting of the Greenland ice sheet, it is crucial to assess changes in frequency and characteristics of summer Greenland blocking. Indeed, the occurrence of such atmospheric pattern has seen a marked increase in recent decades: however, the observed trend is not captured by any simulation from state-of-the-art global climate models. It is therefore paramount to determine whether the lack of trend is caused by a misrepresentation of key physical mechanisms in climate models or whether such trend is mainly attributable to decadal variability, or both. Here we investigate Greenland blocking characteristics in reanalysis (ERA5) and ECMWF seasonal forecasts (SEAS5.1), showing that about 10 % of the 1000 permutations of SEAS5.1 runs can simulate a 43-year trend equal or larger to the ERA5 one: this suggests that the initialization and the higher model resolution contribute to a more realistic representation of the blocking dynamics than in freely-evolving climate runs. To further investigate these aspects, we apply the Peter and Clark momentary conditional independence (PCMCI) algorithm to assess monthly causal pathways. Results show that while the relationship among Arctic temperature, snow cover, Atlantic multidecadal variability and Greenland blocking is consistent both in ERA5 and SEAS5.1, the effect of early snow melt over North America on Greenland blocking is mostly absent in SEAS5.1. Therefore, while it is possible that the observed trend is due to internal decadal variability, the misrepresentation of the snow cover processes may explain the difficulty that SEAS5.1 has in reproducing the observed trend. This deficit in representing the snow impact on the atmospheric circulation might also be the culprit of the missing trend in climate models, raising the question whether long-term projections underestimate a future increase in Greenland blocking and ice melt.