Carbon reduction requires attention to the contribution of natural gas use: Combustion and leakage

Abstract. Natural gas will continue to replace coal in the process of global energy structure reform, but its leakage potential can delay the realization of global carbon neutrality. To quantify its impact, we established a carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) emission flux detection platform on the 220-m platform of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, located in northwestern Beijing. The observation results indicated that the daily mean CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes were 12.21±1.75 µmol·m⁻²·s⁻¹ and 95.54±18.92 nmol·m^-2·s^-1, respectively. The daily variations in the emissions of these two gases were highly consistent, and their fluxes were significantly correlated with natural gas consumption, indicating that natural gas has become a common source of CH₄ and CO₂. Vehicle-based identification demonstrated that methane can escape at the storage and use stages of natural gas. Based on natural gas consumption data, the upper limit of the calculated natural gas leakage rate in Beijing reached 1.12±0.22 %, indicating that the contribution of CH₄ to climate change could reach 23 % of that of CO₂ on a 20-year scale. Natural gas leakage was estimated to delay the time for China to achieve carbon neutrality by almost three years.