Ongoing firn warming at Eclipse Icefield, Yukon, indicates potential widespread meltwater percolation and retention in firn pack across the St. Elias Range

Abstract. Warming in high alpine regions is leading to an increase in glacier surface melt production, firn temperature, and firn liquid water content, altering regional hydrology and climate records contained in the ice. Here we use field observations and firn modeling to show that although the snowpack at Eclipse Icefield at 3,000 ma.s.l. in the St. Elias Range, Yukon, Canada, remains largely dry, meltwater percolation is likely to increase with an increase in extreme melt events associated with continued atmospheric warming. In particular, the development of year-round deep temperate firn at Eclipse is promoted by an increase in extreme individual melt events, rather than a greater number of small melt events or a prolonged melt season. Borehole temperatures indicate that from 2016 to 2023 there has been a 1.67 °C warming of the firn at 14 m depth (to –3.37 ± 0.01 °C in 2023). Results from the Community Firn Model show that warming of the firn below 10 m depth may continue over the next decade, with a 2 % chance of becoming temperate year-round at 15 m depth by 2033, even without continued atmospheric warming. Model results also show that the chance of Eclipse developing year-round temperate firn at 15 m depth by 2033 increases from 2 % with 0.1 °C atmospheric warming over the period 2023–2033 to 12 % with 0.2 °C warming, 51 % with 0.5 °C warming and 98 % with 1 °C warming. As the majority of the St. Elias Range’s glacierized terrain lies below Eclipse, the development of temperate firn at this elevation would represent the ability for widespread meltwater percolation in this region and a wholesale change in its hydrological system, reducing its capacity to buffer runoff and severely limiting potential ice core sites.