Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2255
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2255
03 Feb 2025
 | 03 Feb 2025
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Review Article: Analysis of sediment disaster risk assessment surveys in Brazil: A critical review and recommendations

Thiago Dutra dos Santos and Taro Uchida

Abstract. Climate change-induced sediment-related disasters in Brazil are intensifying, posing substantial risks. Studies on Brazilian disaster risk reduction are abundant, but those on federal risk assessment surveys are scarce. To address this gap, we analyzed five surveys, including the Municipal Risk Reduction Plan (PMRR), Geological Risk Survey (GRS), Susceptibility Survey (SS), Geotechnical Aptitude for Urbanization (GAUC), and Geological Hazard Survey (GHS). We conducted a meta-analysis of 300 scholarly publications and public datasets to assess these surveys, evaluating input data, methods, outcomes, applicability, effectiveness, and cost–benefit, guided by global recommendations. Spearman’s rank correlation and McDonald’s Omega were employed to evaluate survey associations with initiatives. The results reveal each survey’s unique contributions and challenges, such as limited national coverage and underutilization of quantitative methods. GHS stands out for its versatility, including climate change adaptation countermeasures and decision-maker relevance, but it lacks legal support and limited coverage. GRS and SS are well established but need considerable methodological updates, while GAUC is underutilized due to complexity and high costs. Despite the reproducibility and cost-time efficiency challenges, PMRR exhibits substantial correlation with implementing disaster risk reduction activities. Recommendations include standardizing procedures, enhancing data collection and analysis, improving outputs, and a progressive multilevel approach.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
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Thiago Dutra dos Santos and Taro Uchida

Status: open (until 17 Mar 2025)

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Thiago Dutra dos Santos and Taro Uchida
Thiago Dutra dos Santos and Taro Uchida

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Short summary
Five federal sediment-related disaster risk assessments have been conducted in Brazil, each with distinct objectives and methodologies. To evaluate their effectiveness and identify issues, we analyzed the methods, the outcome data, and reviewed the status of disaster prevention initiatives based on the assessment results. Our findings revealed persistent problems across all methods. Consequently, we recommended improvements to enhance their efficacy and reliability.
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