Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-815
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-815
25 Apr 2024
 | 25 Apr 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Air quality modeling intercomparison and multi-scale ensemble chain for Latin America

Jorge E. Pachon, Mariel Opazo, Pablo Lichtig, Nicolas Hunneus, Idir Bouarar, Guy Brasseur, Cathy W. Y. Li, Johannes Flemming, Laurent Menut, Camilo Menares, Laura Gallardo, Michael Gauss, Mikhail Sofiev, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Julia Palamarchuk, Laura Dawidowski, Nestor Y. Rojas, Maria de Fatima Andrade, Mario E. Gavidia-Calderón, Alejandro H. Delgado Peralta, and Daniel Schuch

Abstract. A multi-scale modeling ensemble chain has been assembled as a first step towards an Air Quality forecasting system for Latin America. Two global and three regional models were tested and compared over a shared domain (120W–28W, 60S–30N) to simulate January and July of 2015. Observations from local air quality monitoring networks in Colombia, Chile, Brazil, México, Ecuador and Peru were used for model evaluation. The models generally agreed with observations in large cities such as México City and São Paulo, whereas representing smaller urban areas, such as Bogotá and Santiago, was more challenging. For instance, in Santiago, during wintertime, the simulations showed large discrepancies with observations. No single model had the best performance among pollutants and sites available. Ozone and NO2 were reproduced better than other pollutants across sites whereas SO2 was the most difficult. The ensemble, created from the median value of the individual models, was evaluated as well. In some cases, the ensemble showed better results over the individual models and mitigated the extreme over- or underestimation of certain models, demonstrating the potential to establish an analysis and forecast system for Latin America. This study identified certain limitations in the models and global emissions inventories, which should be addressed with the involvement and experience of local researchers.

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Jorge E. Pachon, Mariel Opazo, Pablo Lichtig, Nicolas Hunneus, Idir Bouarar, Guy Brasseur, Cathy W. Y. Li, Johannes Flemming, Laurent Menut, Camilo Menares, Laura Gallardo, Michael Gauss, Mikhail Sofiev, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Julia Palamarchuk, Laura Dawidowski, Nestor Y. Rojas, Maria de Fatima Andrade, Mario E. Gavidia-Calderón, Alejandro H. Delgado Peralta, and Daniel Schuch

Status: open (until 20 Jun 2024)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
Jorge E. Pachon, Mariel Opazo, Pablo Lichtig, Nicolas Hunneus, Idir Bouarar, Guy Brasseur, Cathy W. Y. Li, Johannes Flemming, Laurent Menut, Camilo Menares, Laura Gallardo, Michael Gauss, Mikhail Sofiev, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Julia Palamarchuk, Laura Dawidowski, Nestor Y. Rojas, Maria de Fatima Andrade, Mario E. Gavidia-Calderón, Alejandro H. Delgado Peralta, and Daniel Schuch

Data sets

Air Quality Networks in Latin America and the Caribbean for model evaluation Jorge E. Pachon et al. https://papila-h2020.eu/observations

Supplementary Model Dataset Jorge E. Pachon et al. https://zenodo.org/records/10934490

Model code and software

Modelling and Observation System and Analysis Tool (MOSPAT) Nicolas Huneeus and Mariel Opazo https://github.com/NeoMOSPAT/NeoMOSPAT_PAPILA

Jorge E. Pachon, Mariel Opazo, Pablo Lichtig, Nicolas Hunneus, Idir Bouarar, Guy Brasseur, Cathy W. Y. Li, Johannes Flemming, Laurent Menut, Camilo Menares, Laura Gallardo, Michael Gauss, Mikhail Sofiev, Rostislav Kouznetsov, Julia Palamarchuk, Laura Dawidowski, Nestor Y. Rojas, Maria de Fatima Andrade, Mario E. Gavidia-Calderón, Alejandro H. Delgado Peralta, and Daniel Schuch

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Short summary
Latin America (LAC) has some of the most populated urban areas in the world with high levels of air pollution. Air quality management in LAC has been traditionally focused on surveillance and building emission inventories. This study performed the first intercomparison and model evaluation in LAC with interesting and insightful findings for the region. A multi-scale modeling ensemble chain has been assembled as a first step towards an Air Quality forecasting system.