Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-387
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-387
22 Mar 2024
 | 22 Mar 2024

Decadal re-forecasts of glacier climatic mass balance

Larissa van der Laan, Anouk Vlug, Adam A. Scaife, Fabien Maussion, and Kristian Förster

Abstract. We present the first study using decadal re-forecasts to simulate global glacier climatic mass balance, bridging the gap between seasonal and long-term simulation of glacier contribution to catchment hydrology and sea level rise. Using the Open Global Glacier Model, driven by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 ensembles of initialised decadal climate re-forecasts of temperature and precipitation, we demonstrate the skill of glacier mass balance re-forecasts on the decadal timescale, for respectively 279 reference glaciers and all land-terminating glaciers globally. For comparison, the glacier model is also forced with a simple persistence forecast and general circulation model historical time series and projections, representing the current state of the art. The results from forcing with decadal re-forecasts provide improvement over the other two methods. Simulating single years, especially at short lead times, decadal re-forecasts show the highest Pearson correlations and lowest mean absolute errors, compared to observed mass balance. Simulating cumulative mass balance over full decades for the 279 reference glaciers, forcing with decadal re-forecasts yields a decrease in mean absolute error of 18 % and 16 % compared to forcing with persistence forecasts and historical global circulation model simulations, respectively. Globally, comparing average mass balance over the time period 2000–2020, forcing with decadal re-forecasts results in the highest number of regions with ’good fit’ to observations (difference from observed regional mass balance =< 0.1 m w.e.), compared to the persistence and historical climate model forcing. These findings indicate that the use of decadal predictions for glacier modelling is operationally feasible and holds significant potential for future hydrological applications.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

16 Sep 2025
Decadal re-forecasts of glacier climatic mass balance
Larissa Nora van der Laan, Anouk Vlug, Adam A. Scaife, Fabien Maussion, and Kristian Förster
The Cryosphere, 19, 3879–3896, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3879-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3879-2025, 2025
Short summary
Larissa van der Laan, Anouk Vlug, Adam A. Scaife, Fabien Maussion, and Kristian Förster

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-387', Anonymous Referee #1, 18 May 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Larissa van der Laan, 15 Oct 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-387', Anonymous Referee #2, 22 May 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Larissa van der Laan, 15 Oct 2024

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-387', Anonymous Referee #1, 18 May 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Larissa van der Laan, 15 Oct 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-387', Anonymous Referee #2, 22 May 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Larissa van der Laan, 15 Oct 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (23 Oct 2024) by Ian Delaney
AR by Larissa van der Laan on behalf of the Authors (09 Jan 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (23 Jan 2025) by Ian Delaney
RR by Kristoffer Aalstad (18 Feb 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (08 Mar 2025)
ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (13 Mar 2025) by Ian Delaney
AR by Larissa van der Laan on behalf of the Authors (05 May 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (22 May 2025) by Ian Delaney
AR by Larissa van der Laan on behalf of the Authors (14 Jun 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (20 Jun 2025) by Ian Delaney
AR by Larissa van der Laan on behalf of the Authors (01 Jul 2025)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

16 Sep 2025
Decadal re-forecasts of glacier climatic mass balance
Larissa Nora van der Laan, Anouk Vlug, Adam A. Scaife, Fabien Maussion, and Kristian Förster
The Cryosphere, 19, 3879–3896, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3879-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3879-2025, 2025
Short summary
Larissa van der Laan, Anouk Vlug, Adam A. Scaife, Fabien Maussion, and Kristian Förster
Larissa van der Laan, Anouk Vlug, Adam A. Scaife, Fabien Maussion, and Kristian Förster

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
Usually, glacier models are supplied with climate information from long (e.g. 100 year) simulations by global climate models. In this paper, we test the feasibility of supplying glacier models with shorter simulations, to get more accurate information on 5–10 year time scales. Reliable information on these time scales is very important, especially for water management experts to know how much meltwater to expect, for rivers, agriculture and drinking water.
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