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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2024-387</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Decadal re-forecasts of glacier climatic mass balance</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>van der Laan</surname>
<given-names>Larissa</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8892-9011</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Vlug</surname>
<given-names>Anouk</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3347-3547</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Scaife</surname>
<given-names>Adam A.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5189-7538</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Maussion</surname>
<given-names>Fabien</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3211-506X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Förster</surname>
<given-names>Kristian</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7542-2820</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Leibniz University Hannover, Hannover, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Bristol Glaciology Centre, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Ecology and Landscape, University of Applied Sciences Weihenstephan-Triesdorf, Freising, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>22</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2024</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>24</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2024 Larissa van der Laan et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2024</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-387/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-387/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-387/egusphere-2024-387.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-387/egusphere-2024-387.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>We present the first study using decadal re-forecasts to simulate global glacier climatic mass balance, bridging the gap between seasonal and long-term simulation of glacier contribution to catchment hydrology and sea level rise. Using the Open Global Glacier Model, driven by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 ensembles of initialised decadal climate re-forecasts of temperature and precipitation, we demonstrate the skill of glacier mass balance re-forecasts on the decadal timescale, for respectively 279 reference glaciers and all land-terminating glaciers globally. For comparison, the glacier model is also forced with a simple persistence forecast and general circulation model historical time series and projections, representing the current state of the art. The results from forcing with decadal re-forecasts provide improvement over the other two methods. Simulating single years, especially at short lead times, decadal re-forecasts show the highest Pearson correlations and lowest mean absolute errors, compared to observed mass balance. Simulating cumulative mass balance over full decades for the 279 reference glaciers, forcing with decadal re-forecasts yields a decrease in mean absolute error of 18 % and 16 % compared to forcing with persistence forecasts and historical global circulation model simulations, respectively. Globally, comparing average mass balance over the time period 2000&amp;ndash;2020, forcing with decadal re-forecasts results in the highest number of regions with &amp;rsquo;good fit&amp;rsquo; to observations (difference from observed regional mass balance =&amp;lt; 0.1 m w.e.), compared to the persistence and historical climate model forcing. These findings indicate that the use of decadal predictions for glacier modelling is operationally feasible and holds significant potential for future hydrological applications.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="24"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft</funding-source>
<award-id>416069075 (FO1269/1)</award-id>
<award-id>MA6966/5-1</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Austrian Science Fund</funding-source>
<award-id>P30256</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>Met Office</funding-source>
<award-id>Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (HCCP) funded by the UK Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT)</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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