Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3261
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3261
28 Oct 2024
 | 28 Oct 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Informativeness of teleconnections in local and regional frequency analysis of rainfall extremes

Andrea Magnini, Valentina Pavan, and Attilio Castellarin

Abstract. We propose an effective and reproducible framework to assess the informative content of teleconnections for representing and modeling the frequency regime of rainfall extremes at regional scale. Our dataset consists of 680 annual maximum series of rainfall depth, with 1 and 24 hours durations, located in northern Italy. We compute at-site time series of L-moments through sliding time windows; then we discretize the study region into tiles, where L-moments time series are averaged. We observe that the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOI) shows strong spatial correlation patterns with gridded L-moments. Finally, in a preliminary application of climate-informed regional frequency analysis, the L-moments are modelled as functions of WeMOI. We observe high variability of WeMOI-driven rainfall percentiles predictions, and an increase in overall goodness-of-fit of the regional model relative to the stationary framework. Overall, our research suggests promising pathways for climate-informed local and regional frequency analysis of rainfall extremes, and describes general methods, that can be adapted to different environmental variables.

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Andrea Magnini, Valentina Pavan, and Attilio Castellarin

Status: open (until 09 Dec 2024)

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  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3261', Francesco Serinaldi, 29 Oct 2024 reply
Andrea Magnini, Valentina Pavan, and Attilio Castellarin
Andrea Magnini, Valentina Pavan, and Attilio Castellarin

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Short summary
This study describes a new methodology to identify regional structures in the dependence of extreme rainfall on global climate indexes. The study area is north-central Italy, but the methods are highly adaptable to other regions. We observe that the Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index has a strong influence, whose geographical pattern is in line with other studies. We show also that the use of the Index may improve the estimation of the extreme rainfall depth with a given probability.