Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2957
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2957
08 Nov 2024
 | 08 Nov 2024

The impact of regional-scale upper mantle heterogeneity on glacial isostatic adjustment in West Antarctica

Erica Margaret Lucas, Natalya Gomez, and Terry Wilson

Abstract. West Antarctica is underlain by a laterally heterogenous upper mantle, with localized regions of mantle viscosity reaching several orders of magnitude below the global average. Accounting for 3-D viscosity variability in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) simulations has been shown to impact the predicted spatial rates and patterns of crustal deformation, geoid, and sea level changes in response to surface ice loading changes. Uncertainty in the viscoelastic structure of the solid Earth remains a major limitation in GIA modeling. To date, investigations of the impact of 3-D Earth structure on GIA have adopted solid Earth viscoelastic models based on global- and continental-scale seismic imaging, with variability at spatial length scales > 150 km. However, regional body-wave tomography shows mantle structure variability at smaller length scales (~50–100 km) in central West Antarctica. Here, we investigate the effects of incorporating smaller-scale lateral variability in upper mantle viscosity into 3-D GIA simulations. Lateral variability in upper mantle structure at the glacial drainage basin scale is found to impact GIA model predictions for modern and projected ice mass changes, especially in coastal regions that undergo rapid ice mass loss. Differences between simulations adopting upper mantle viscosity structure inferred from regional- versus coarser continental-scale seismic imaging are large enough to impact the interpretation of crustal motion observations and reach up to ~15 % of the total predicted sea level change during the instrumental record. Incorporating a strong transition from lower viscosities at the mouth of the Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers to higher viscosities in the interior of the glacier basins results in a ~10–20 % difference in predicted sea level change in the vicinity of the grounding line over the next ~300 years. These findings have a range of implications for the interpretation of geophysical observables and improving constraints on feedbacks between the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the solid Earth.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

03 Jul 2025
The impact of regional-scale upper-mantle heterogeneity on glacial isostatic adjustment in West Antarctica
Erica M. Lucas, Natalya Gomez, and Terry Wilson
The Cryosphere, 19, 2387–2405, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2387-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2387-2025, 2025
Short summary
Erica Margaret Lucas, Natalya Gomez, and Terry Wilson

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2957', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Dec 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2957', Anonymous Referee #2, 17 Jan 2025

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2957', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Dec 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2957', Anonymous Referee #2, 17 Jan 2025

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (04 Mar 2025) by Jan De Rydt
AR by Erica Lucas on behalf of the Authors (05 Mar 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (13 Mar 2025) by Jan De Rydt
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (31 Mar 2025)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (01 Apr 2025) by Jan De Rydt
AR by Erica Lucas on behalf of the Authors (01 Apr 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (03 Apr 2025) by Jan De Rydt
AR by Erica Lucas on behalf of the Authors (09 Apr 2025)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

03 Jul 2025
The impact of regional-scale upper-mantle heterogeneity on glacial isostatic adjustment in West Antarctica
Erica M. Lucas, Natalya Gomez, and Terry Wilson
The Cryosphere, 19, 2387–2405, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2387-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2387-2025, 2025
Short summary
Erica Margaret Lucas, Natalya Gomez, and Terry Wilson
Erica Margaret Lucas, Natalya Gomez, and Terry Wilson

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Short summary
We investigate the effects of incorporating regional-scale lateral variability (~50–100 km) in upper mantle structure into models of Earth deformation and sea level change associated with ice mass changes in West Antarctica. Regional-scale variability in upper mantle structure is found to impact relative sea level and crustal rate predictions for modern (last ~25–125 years) and projected (next ~300 years) ice mass changes, especially in coastal regions that undergo rapid ice mass loss.
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