Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-289
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-289
06 Mar 2024
 | 06 Mar 2024

GC Insights: Communicating changes in local climate risk using a physically plausible causal chain

Ed Hawkins, Nigel Arnell, Jamie Hannaford, and Rowan Sutton

Abstract. Directly linking greenhouse gas emissions or global warming to experiences of local climatic changes or extreme events is a potentially important communication tool. We develop a physically plausible ‘causal chain’ as one approach to demonstrate the connections between global carbon dioxide emissions and real-life events, using a case study of flood risk in one river basin in the UK.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Ed Hawkins, Nigel Arnell, Jamie Hannaford, and Rowan Sutton

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-289', Anonymous Referee #1, 05 Apr 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Ed Hawkins, 06 Jun 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-289', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 May 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Ed Hawkins, 06 Jun 2024

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-289', Anonymous Referee #1, 05 Apr 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Ed Hawkins, 06 Jun 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-289', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 May 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Ed Hawkins, 06 Jun 2024
Ed Hawkins, Nigel Arnell, Jamie Hannaford, and Rowan Sutton
Ed Hawkins, Nigel Arnell, Jamie Hannaford, and Rowan Sutton

Viewed

Total article views: 1,085 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
829 227 29 1,085 48 16 15
  • HTML: 829
  • PDF: 227
  • XML: 29
  • Total: 1,085
  • Supplement: 48
  • BibTeX: 16
  • EndNote: 15
Views and downloads (calculated since 06 Mar 2024)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 06 Mar 2024)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 1,126 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 1,126 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 15 Jul 2024
Download
This paper creates a visual physically plausible causal chain to communicate long-term changes in local climate risk, using flooding in a UK river basin as an example. This chain places local hazards, such as flooding, within the broader context of global climate change, including factors like global carbon dioxide emissions and temperature changes. It relies exclusively on observations, thereby avoiding the additional uncertainties associated with climate scenarios that might hinder understanding in certain situations. This causal chain idea has the potential to be a powerful communication tool for clearly communicating risks and the contributing factors, engaging with local communities, and addressing common misconceptions like the “Myth of Dry Feet” - a Dutch expression implying that extreme events such as floods only happen elsewhere, and won't happen "here" or "to me". While this chain is created for flood risk in the UK, it has the potential for broader application in various geoscience fields.
Short summary
Climate change can often seem rather remote especially when the discussion is about global averages which appears to have little relevance to local experiences. But, those global changes are already affecting people, even if they don’t fully realise it, and effective communication of this issue is critical. We use long observations and well-understood physical principles to highlight how global emissions influence local flood risk in one river basin in the UK.