Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2809
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2809
19 Sep 2024
 | 19 Sep 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).

Dynamics, predictability, impacts, and climate change considerations of the catastrophic Mediterranean Storm Daniel (2023)

Emmanouil Flaounas, Stavros Dafis, Silvio Davolio, Davide Faranda, Christian Ferrarin, Katharina Hartmuth, Assaf Hochman, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Samira Khodayar, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Platon Patlakas, Michael Sprenger, and Iris Thurnherr

Abstract. In September 2023, storm Daniel formed in the centre of the Mediterranean Sea as an intense Mediterranean cyclone. Its formation was accompanied by significant socioeconomic impacts in Greece including several fatalities and severe damages to agricultural infrastructures. Within a few days, the cyclone evolved into a tropical-like storm, i.e., medicane, that made landfall in Libya, probably marking the most catastrophic and lethal weather event that was ever documented in the region. In this study, we place storm Daniel as the centrepiece of the catastrophic events in Greece and Libya. We thus consider that there is a direct link between the atmospheric processes that turned Daniel into a catastrophic storm and the actual socioeconomic impacts that a single weather system has produced in the two countries. We perform a holistic analysis that articulates between atmospheric dynamics, precipitation extremes, and quantification of impacts, i.e., floods and sea state. This is done by taking into account the predictability of Daniel at weather scales and the attribution of impacts to climate change.

Our results show that Daniel initially formed like any other intense Mediterranean cyclone. At this stage, the cyclone produced significant socioeconomic impacts on Greece, in an area far from the cyclone centre. In later times, Daniel attained tropical-like characteristics while gradually reaching its maximum intensity. Impacts over Libya coincided with the cyclone's landfall at its maturity stage. The predictability of the cyclone formation was rather low even in  relatively short lead times -of the order of four days- while higher prediction skill was found when addressing the landfall in Libya for the same lead times. Our analysis of impacts shows the adequate capacity of numerical weather forecasting to capture the extremeness of precipitation amounts and floodings in Greece and Libya.

Therefore, state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction has provided information on the severity of the imminent flood events. We also analyse the moisture sources contributing to extreme precipitation. Results show that moisture sources were majorly driven by large-scale atmospheric circulation, while in maturity, Daniel drew substantial amounts of water vapor from local maritime areas within the Mediterranean Sea. In a climatological context, Daniel was indeed shown to produce extreme precipitation amounts, and our analysis allows us to interpret Daniel's impacts as an event whose characteristics can be ascribed to human-driven climate change.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Stavros Dafis, Silvio Davolio, Davide Faranda, Christian Ferrarin, Katharina Hartmuth, Assaf Hochman, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Samira Khodayar, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Platon Patlakas, Michael Sprenger, and Iris Thurnherr

Status: open (until 10 Nov 2024)

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Emmanouil Flaounas, Stavros Dafis, Silvio Davolio, Davide Faranda, Christian Ferrarin, Katharina Hartmuth, Assaf Hochman, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Samira Khodayar, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Platon Patlakas, Michael Sprenger, and Iris Thurnherr
Emmanouil Flaounas, Stavros Dafis, Silvio Davolio, Davide Faranda, Christian Ferrarin, Katharina Hartmuth, Assaf Hochman, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Samira Khodayar, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Platon Patlakas, Michael Sprenger, and Iris Thurnherr

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Short summary
Storm Daniel (2023) is one of the most catastrophic ones ever documented in the Mediterranean. Our results highlight the different dynamics and therefore the different predictability skill of precipitation, its extremes and impacts that have been produced in Greece and Libya, the two most affected countries. Our approach concerns a holistic analysis of the storm by articulating dynamics, weather prediction, hydrological and oceanographic implications, climate extremes and attribution theory.