Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785
24 Sep 2024
 | 24 Sep 2024

Disentangling Atmospheric, Hydrological, and Coupling Uncertainties in Compound Flood Modeling within a Coupled Earth System Model

Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Donghui Xu, Chang Liao, Gautam Bisht, James J. Benedict, Tian Zhou, Mithun Deb, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung

Abstract. Compound riverine and coastal flooding is usually driven by complex interactions among meteorological, hydrological, and ocean extremes. However, existing efforts of modeling this phenomenon often rely on models that do not integrate hydrological processes across atmosphere-land-river-ocean systems, leading to substantial uncertainties that have not been fully examined. To bridge the gap, we leverage the new capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) that enable a multi-component framework that integrates coastal-refined atmospheric, terrestrial, and oceanic components. We evaluate compound uncertainties arising from two-way land-river-ocean coupling in E3SM, and track the cascading meteorological and hydrological uncertainties through ensemble simulations over the Delaware River basin and estuary during Hurricane Irene (2011). Our findings highlight the importance of two-way river-ocean coupling to compound flood modeling and demonstrate E3SM’s effectiveness in handling multivariate flooding on the coast. Our study shows the growing uncertainties that transition from atmospheric forcings to flood distribution and severity. Furthermore, an Artificial Neural Network based analysis is used to assess the roles of some understudied hydrological drivers, such as infiltration and soil moisture, in the generation of compound flooding. The response of compound floods to tropical cyclones (TCs) is found to be susceptible to these often overlooked drivers. For instance, flood damage could be tripled if Hurricane Irene was preceded by an extreme antecedent soil moisture condition (AMC). The results not only support the use of a multi-component framework for interactive flooding processes, but also underscore the necessity of broader definitions of compound flooding that encompasses the simultaneous occurrence of intense precipitation, storm surge, and high AMC during TCs.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

26 Sep 2025
Disentangling atmospheric, hydrological, and coupling uncertainties in compound flood modeling within a coupled Earth system model
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Donghui Xu, Chang Liao, Gautam Bisht, James J. Benedict, Tian Zhou, Mithun Deb, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3619–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3619-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3619-2025, 2025
Short summary
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Donghui Xu, Chang Liao, Gautam Bisht, James J. Benedict, Tian Zhou, Mithun Deb, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2785', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Oct 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Dongyu Feng, 02 Jan 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2785', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Oct 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Dongyu Feng, 02 Jan 2025

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2785', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Oct 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Dongyu Feng, 02 Jan 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2785', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Oct 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Dongyu Feng, 02 Jan 2025

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish as is (04 Feb 2025) by Avantika Gori
ED: Publish as is (24 Feb 2025) by Avantika Gori
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (10 Mar 2025) by Uwe Ulbrich (Executive editor)
AR by Dongyu Feng on behalf of the Authors (10 Mar 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (15 Apr 2025) by Avantika Gori
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (01 May 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (14 May 2025)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (12 Jun 2025) by Avantika Gori
AR by Dongyu Feng on behalf of the Authors (17 Jun 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (30 Jun 2025) by Avantika Gori
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (17 Jul 2025) by Bruce D. Malamud (Executive editor)
AR by Dongyu Feng on behalf of the Authors (20 Jul 2025)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

26 Sep 2025
Disentangling atmospheric, hydrological, and coupling uncertainties in compound flood modeling within a coupled Earth system model
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Donghui Xu, Chang Liao, Gautam Bisht, James J. Benedict, Tian Zhou, Mithun Deb, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3619–3639, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3619-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3619-2025, 2025
Short summary
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Donghui Xu, Chang Liao, Gautam Bisht, James J. Benedict, Tian Zhou, Mithun Deb, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Donghui Xu, Chang Liao, Gautam Bisht, James J. Benedict, Tian Zhou, Mithun Deb, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung

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Short summary
Our study explores how riverine and coastal flooding during hurricanes is influenced by the interaction of atmosphere, land, river and ocean conditions. Using an advanced Earth system model, we simulate Hurricane Irene to evaluate how meteorological and hydrological uncertainties affect flood modeling. Our findings reveal the importance of a multi-component modeling system, how hydrological conditions play critical roles in flood modeling, and greater flood risks if multiple factors are present.
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