Impact of different solar EUV proxies and Ap index on hmF2 trend analysis

Abstract. Long-term trend estimation in the peak height of the F2 layer, hmF2, needs the previous filtering of much stronger natural variations such as those linked to the diurnal, seasonal, and solar activity cycles. If not filtered, they need to be included in the model used to estimate the trend. The same happens with the maximum ionospheric electron density that occurs in this layer, NmF2, usually analyzed through the F2 layer critical frequency, foF2. While diurnal and seasonal variations can be easily managed, filtering the effects of solar activity presents more challenges, as does the influence of geomagnetic activity. However, recent decades have shown that geomagnetic activity may not significantly impact trend assessments. On the other hand, the choice of solar activity proxies for filtering has been shown to influence trend values in foF2, potentially altering even the trend's sign. This study examines the impact of different solar activity proxies on hmF2 trend estimations, using data updated to 2022, including the ascending phase of solar cycle 25, and explores the effect of including the Ap index as a filtering factor. The results obtained, based on two mid-latitude stations, are also comparatively analyzed to those obtained for foF2. The main findings indicate that the squared correlation coefficient, r², between hmF2 and solar proxies, regardless of the model used or the inclusion of the Ap index, is consistently lower than in the corresponding foF2 cases. This lower r² value in hmF2 suggests a greater amount of unexplained variance, indicating that there is significant room for improvement in these models. However, in terms of trend values, foF2 shows greater variability depending on the proxy used, whereas the inclusion or exclusion of the Ap index does not significantly affect these trends. This suggests that foF2 trends are more sensitive to the choice of solar activity proxy. In contrast, hmF2 trends, while generally negative, exhibit greater stability than foF2 trends.