Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2184
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2184
15 Aug 2024
 | 15 Aug 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Projecting the Response of Greenland's Peripheral Glaciers to Future Climate Change: Glacier Losses, Sea Level Impact, Freshwater Contributions, and Peak Water Timing

Muhammad Shafeeque, Jan-Hendrik Malles, Anouk Vlug, Marco Möller, and Ben Marzeion

Abstract. Greenland's peripheral glaciers are significant contributors to sea level rise and freshwater fluxes, yet their future evolution remains poorly constrained. This study projects the response of these glaciers to future climate change using the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) forced by CMIP6 climate data under four emission scenarios. By 2100, the glaciers are projected to lose 19–44 % of their area and 29–52 % of their volume, contributing 10–19 mm to sea level rise. Solid ice discharge is projected to decrease, while freshwater runoff will peak within the 21st century. The runoff composition is projected to change drastically, with shares of glacier ablation decreasing from 92 % in 2021–2030 to 72 % by 2091–2100 and shares of rainfall and snowmelt increasing 8-fold and 15-fold, respectively, suggesting a shift in the hydrological regime. Timing of the maximum runoff varies across scenarios (2050 ± 21 for SSP126; 2082 ± 9 for SSP585) and subregions, with the projected maximum runoff reaching 214–293 Gt/yr, implying significantly increased future freshwater fluxes. These changes will impact fjord water characteristics and coastal hydrography, and potentially influence larger ocean circulation patterns.

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Muhammad Shafeeque, Jan-Hendrik Malles, Anouk Vlug, Marco Möller, and Ben Marzeion

Status: open (until 15 Nov 2024)

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Muhammad Shafeeque, Jan-Hendrik Malles, Anouk Vlug, Marco Möller, and Ben Marzeion

Data sets

Data: Projecting the Response of Greenland's Peripheral Glaciers to Future Climate Change: Glacier Losses, Sea Level Impact, Freshwater Contributions, and Peak Water Timing Muhammad Shafeeque and Ben Marzeion https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12737991

Muhammad Shafeeque, Jan-Hendrik Malles, Anouk Vlug, Marco Möller, and Ben Marzeion

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Short summary
The study explores how Greenland's peripheral glaciers will change due to future climate change using OGGM. They might lose 52 % of ice mass. We predict changes in ice discharge versus melting, affecting fjords, sea levels, and ocean currents. Freshwater runoff composition, seasonality, and peak water timing vary by regions and scenarios. Our findings stress the importance of reducing greenhouse gases to minimize impacts on these glaciers, which influence local ecosystems and global sea level.