Preprints
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2405.19546
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2405.19546
09 Jul 2024
 | 09 Jul 2024
Status: this preprint has been withdrawn by the authors.

Convex optimization of initial perturbations toward quantitative weather control

Toshiyuki Ohtsuka, Atsushi Okazaki, Masaki Ogura, and Shunji Kotsuki

Abstract. This study proposes introducing convex optimization to find initial perturbations of atmospheric models for realizing specified changes in subsequent forecasts. In the proposed method, we formulate and solve an inverse problem to find effective perturbations in atmospheric variables so that controlled variables satisfy specified changes at a specified time. The proposed method first constructs a sensitivity matrix of controlled variables, such as accumulated precipitation, to the initial atmospheric variables, such as temperature and humidity, through sensitivity analysis using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The sensitivity matrix is used to solve the inverse problem as convex optimization, in which a global optimal solution can be found computationally efficiently. The proposed method was validated through a benchmark warm bubble experiment using an NWP model. The experiments showed that identified perturbation successfully realized specified spatial distributions of accumulated precipitation. These results demonstrated the possibility of controlling the real atmosphere by solving inverse problems and adding small perturbations to atmospheric states.

This preprint has been withdrawn.

Toshiyuki Ohtsuka, Atsushi Okazaki, Masaki Ogura, and Shunji Kotsuki

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1952', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Aug 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1952', Anonymous Referee #2, 26 Aug 2024
  • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1952', Toshiyuki Ohtsuka, 15 Oct 2024
  • EC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1952', Olivier Talagrand, 28 Oct 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on EC1', Toshiyuki Ohtsuka, 05 Nov 2024

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1952', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Aug 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1952', Anonymous Referee #2, 26 Aug 2024
  • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1952', Toshiyuki Ohtsuka, 15 Oct 2024
  • EC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1952', Olivier Talagrand, 28 Oct 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on EC1', Toshiyuki Ohtsuka, 05 Nov 2024
Toshiyuki Ohtsuka, Atsushi Okazaki, Masaki Ogura, and Shunji Kotsuki

Model code and software

SCALE-RM Team SCALE, RIKEN https://scale.riken.jp/

Weather-Control-by-InitCond Toshiyuki Ohtsuka https://github.com/ohtsukalab/Weather-Control-by-InitCond

Toshiyuki Ohtsuka, Atsushi Okazaki, Masaki Ogura, and Shunji Kotsuki

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This preprint has been withdrawn.

Short summary
We utilize weather forecasts in the reverse direction and determine how much we should change the temperature or humidity of the atmosphere at a certain time to change the future rainfall as desired. Even though a weather phenomenon is complicated, we can superimpose the effects of small changes in the atmosphere and find suitable small changes to realize desirable rainfall by solving an optimization problem. We examine this idea on a realistic weather simulator and show it is promising.