Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1918
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1918
22 Jul 2024
 | 22 Jul 2024

Modelling rainfall with a Bartlett-Lewis process: pyBL (v1.0.0), a Python software package and an application with short records

Chi-Ling Wei, Pei-Chun Chen, Chien-Yu Tseng, Ting-Yu Dai, Yun-Ting Ho, Ching-Chun Chou, Christian Onof, and Li-Pen Wang

Abstract. The Bartlett-Lewis (BL) model is a stochastic framework for representing rainfall based upon Poisson cluster point process theory. This model has been used for over 30 years in the stochastic modelling of daily and hourly rainfall time series. Historically, the BL model was known to underestimate sub-daily rainfall extremes, but recent advancements have addressed this issue, making it a viable alternative to traditional rainfall frequency analysis methods, such as those based on annual maxima time series. Despite its potential, calibrating the BL model is a not a trivial task. The model's formulation is complex, and calibrating it involves a nonlinear optimisation process that can be numerically unstable, which has limited its broader application. To promote the use of the BL model and demonstrate its capabilities in modeling sub-hourly rainfall –both standard and extreme statistics– we have developed an open-source Python package called pyBL. This paper details the design of the BL model and summarises the key features of the pyBL package. It includes a brief explanation of how to use the package in selected user scenarios. In addition, we report upon scientific experiments that resemble real-world situations to showcase pyBL's ability to model sub-hourly rainfall extremes with short records and its flexibility in utilising records of various timescales and lengths.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

05 Mar 2025
Modelling rainfall with a Bartlett–Lewis process: pyBL (v1.0.0), a Python software package and an application with short records
Chi-Ling Wei, Pei-Chun Chen, Chien-Yu Tseng, Ting-Yu Dai, Yun-Ting Ho, Ching-Chun Chou, Christian Onof, and Li-Pen Wang
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 1357–1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1357-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1357-2025, 2025
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

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pyBL is an open-source package for generating realistic rainfall time series based on the...
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