Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1742
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1742
26 Jun 2024
 | 26 Jun 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand

Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah

Abstract. With mountainous topography and exposure to mid-latitude westerly storms causing frequent atmospheric river landfall and associated hydro-hazards, medium-range forecasting of extreme precipitation is a critical imperative for New Zealand. Here, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) is applied to two variables in forecast week 2, total precipitation (TP-EFI) and vertically integrated water vapour transport (IVT-EFI). Results reveal the TP-EFI sometimes outperforms the IVT-EFI in capturing extreme precipitation events – in contrast to past Europe-based research and indicating a need to develop further our conceptual understanding of the predictability of extreme precipitation in different geographical contexts.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah

Status: open (until 23 Aug 2024)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1742', Anonymous Referee #1, 01 Jul 2024 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1742', Anonymous Referee #2, 15 Jul 2024 reply
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah

Viewed

Total article views: 201 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
141 45 15 201 8 8
  • HTML: 141
  • PDF: 45
  • XML: 15
  • Total: 201
  • BibTeX: 8
  • EndNote: 8
Views and downloads (calculated since 26 Jun 2024)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 26 Jun 2024)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 189 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 189 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 24 Jul 2024
Download
Short summary
Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydro-hazard for New Zealand, and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographic setting.