Loading [MathJax]/jax/output/HTML-CSS/fonts/TeX/fontdata.js
Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1742
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1742
26 Jun 2024
 | 26 Jun 2024

Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand

Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah

Abstract. With mountainous topography and exposure to mid-latitude westerly storms causing frequent atmospheric river landfall and associated hydro-hazards, medium-range forecasting of extreme precipitation is a critical imperative for New Zealand. Here, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) is applied to two variables in forecast week 2, total precipitation (TP-EFI) and vertically integrated water vapour transport (IVT-EFI). Results reveal the TP-EFI sometimes outperforms the IVT-EFI in capturing extreme precipitation events – in contrast to past Europe-based research and indicating a need to develop further our conceptual understanding of the predictability of extreme precipitation in different geographical contexts.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Share

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

13 Feb 2025
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 675–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, 2025
Short summary
Download

The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydro-hazard for New Zealand, and is commonly associated with...
Share