Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1737
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1737
20 Jun 2024
 | 20 Jun 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Marine data assimilation in the UK: the past, the present and the vision for the future

Jozef Skakala, David Ford, Keith Haines, Amos Lawless, Matthew Martin, Philip Browne, Marcin Chrust, Stefano Ciavatta, Alison Fowler, Daniel Lea, Matthew Palmer, Andrea Rochner, Jennifer Waters, Hao Zuo, Mike Bell, Davi Carneiro, Yumeng Chen, Susan Kay, Dale Partridge, Martin Price, Richard Renshaw, Georgy Shapiro, and James While

Abstract. In the last two decades UK research institutes have led a wide range of developments in marine data assimilation (MDA), covering areas from the MDA applications in physics and biogeochemistry, to MDA theory. We review the progress over this period and formulate our MDA vision for both the short-term and the longer-term future. We focus on identifying the MDA stakeholder community and current/future areas of impact, as well as the current trends and the future opportunities. This includes rapid growth of machine learning (ML) / artificial intelligence (AI) and digital twin applications. We articulate the MDA needs for future types of observational data (whether planned missions, or hypothetical) and what should be the response of the MDA community to the increase in computational power and new computer architectures (e.g. exascale computing). Although the specifics depend on the MDA area, we advocate for balanced redistribution of the new computational capability among increased model resolution, model complexity, more sophisticated DA algorithms and uncertainty representation (e.g. ensembles). We also advocate for integrated approaches, such as strongly coupled DA (ocean/atmosphere, physics/biogeochemistry, ocean/sea ice) and the use of ML/AI components (e.g. for multivariate increment balancing, bias-correction, model emulation, observation re-gridding, or fusion).

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Jozef Skakala, David Ford, Keith Haines, Amos Lawless, Matthew Martin, Philip Browne, Marcin Chrust, Stefano Ciavatta, Alison Fowler, Daniel Lea, Matthew Palmer, Andrea Rochner, Jennifer Waters, Hao Zuo, Mike Bell, Davi Carneiro, Yumeng Chen, Susan Kay, Dale Partridge, Martin Price, Richard Renshaw, Georgy Shapiro, and James While

Status: open (until 15 Aug 2024)

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Jozef Skakala, David Ford, Keith Haines, Amos Lawless, Matthew Martin, Philip Browne, Marcin Chrust, Stefano Ciavatta, Alison Fowler, Daniel Lea, Matthew Palmer, Andrea Rochner, Jennifer Waters, Hao Zuo, Mike Bell, Davi Carneiro, Yumeng Chen, Susan Kay, Dale Partridge, Martin Price, Richard Renshaw, Georgy Shapiro, and James While
Jozef Skakala, David Ford, Keith Haines, Amos Lawless, Matthew Martin, Philip Browne, Marcin Chrust, Stefano Ciavatta, Alison Fowler, Daniel Lea, Matthew Palmer, Andrea Rochner, Jennifer Waters, Hao Zuo, Mike Bell, Davi Carneiro, Yumeng Chen, Susan Kay, Dale Partridge, Martin Price, Richard Renshaw, Georgy Shapiro, and James While

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Short summary
In this paper we review marine data assimilation (MDA) in the UK, its stakeholders, needs, past and present developments in different areas of UK MDA, and offer a vision for their longer future. The specific areas covered are ocean physics and sea ice, marine biogeochemistry, coupled MDA, MDA informing observing network design and MDA theory. We also discuss future vision for MDA resources: observations, software, hardware and people skills.