Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1493
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1493
10 Jul 2024
 | 10 Jul 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Migration as a Hidden Risk Factor in Seismic Fatality: A Spatial Modeling Approach to the Chi-Chi Earthquake and Suburban Syndrome

Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Thung-Hong Lin, Gee-Yu Liu, Chin-Hsun Yeh, and Diana Maria Ceballos

Abstract. Suburban areas have disproportionately experienced higher fatalities during major earthquakes. Place-based models attribute this spatial disparity to hazard, exposure, and social vulnerability factors. However, the impact of migration on seismic fatality remains underexplored, primarily due to the challenges in accessing mobility data. In this study, we apply a geospatial method, the radiation model, to estimate migration patterns as a critical component of exposure and vulnerability. Analyzing the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan with Poisson regression across 4,052 neighborhoods, we factor in migration inflow (i.e., population traveling from other neighborhoods), migrants' origin income, and indigenous population percentage among migrants, along with other risk factors proven in previous studies. Our findings indicate that migration inflow significantly correlates with increased fatalities. Furthermore, a lower income at the migrants' origin neighborhood is significantly associated with higher fatalities at their destination. An elevated proportion of indigenous population in the migrants' origin neighborhood also significantly correlates with increased fatalities, although the impact of the Chi-Chi earthquake does not predominantly affect indigenous jurisdictions. This study underscores the seismic fatality risk in the outskirts of megacities, where migrants from lower income and historically marginalized groups are more likely to reside for precarious employment conditions, emphasizing the need for affordable and safe living infrastructures for the migrating population. Addressing migrants’ vulnerabilities in housing will not only reduce seismic fatality risk but also improve preparedness against other disasters and public health emergencies.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Thung-Hong Lin, Gee-Yu Liu, Chin-Hsun Yeh, and Diana Maria Ceballos

Status: open (until 21 Aug 2024)

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Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Thung-Hong Lin, Gee-Yu Liu, Chin-Hsun Yeh, and Diana Maria Ceballos

Data sets

Migration as a Hidden Risk Factor in Seismic Fatality: A Spatial Modeling Approach to the Chi-Chi Earthquake and Suburban Syndrome Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen https://github.com/karenthchen/Migration-seismic-risk/

Model code and software

Migration as a Hidden Risk Factor in Seismic Fatality: A Spatial Modeling Approach to the Chi-Chi Earthquake and Suburban Syndrome Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen https://github.com/karenthchen/Migration-seismic-risk/

Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Thung-Hong Lin, Gee-Yu Liu, Chin-Hsun Yeh, and Diana Maria Ceballos

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Short summary
This study reveals migration patterns as a critical factor in seismic fatalities. Analyzing the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, we find that lower income and a higher indigenous population at migrants' origins are correlated with higher fatalities at their destinations. This underscores the need for affordable and safe housing in the outskirts of megacities, where migrants from lower-income and historically marginalized groups are more likely to reside due to precarious employment conditions.