Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1422
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1422
03 Jun 2024
 | 03 Jun 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Impact of methane and other precursor emission reductions on surface ozone in Europe: Scenario analysis using the EMEP MSC-W model

Willem Elias van Caspel, Zbigniew Klimont, Chris Heyes, and Hilde Fagerli

Abstract. The impacts of future methane (CH4) and other precursor emission changes are investigated for surface ozone (O3) in the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) region excluding North America and Israel (the "EMEP region", for European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) for the year 2050. The analysis includes a Current Legislation (CLE) and Maximum Feasible Technical (MFR) reduction scenario, and a scenario that combines MFR reductions with an additional dietary shift that also meets the Paris Agreement objectives with respect to greenhouse gas emissions (LOW). For each scenario, background CH4 concentrations are calculated using a probabilistic Earth System model emulator, and combined with other precursor emissions in a three-dimensional Eulerian chemistry-transport model. While focus is placed on peak season maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) O3 concentrations, a range of other indicators for health and vegetation impacts are also discussed. Our analysis show that roughly one-thirds of the total peak season MDA8 reduction achieved between the 2050 CLE and MFR scenarios is attributable to CH4 reductions, resulting predominantly from CH4 emission reductions outside of the EMEP region. The impact of other precursor emission reductions is split nearly evenly between the reductions inside and outside of the EMEP region. However, the relative importance of CH4 and other precursor emission reductions is shown to depend on the choice of O3 indicator, though indicators sensitive to peak O3 show generally consistent results. The analysis also highlights the synergistic impacts of CH4 mitigation as reducing solely CH4 achieves, beyond air quality improvement, nearly two-thirds of the total global warming reduction calculated for the LOW scenario compared to the CLE case.

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Willem Elias van Caspel, Zbigniew Klimont, Chris Heyes, and Hilde Fagerli

Status: open (until 15 Jul 2024)

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Willem Elias van Caspel, Zbigniew Klimont, Chris Heyes, and Hilde Fagerli
Willem Elias van Caspel, Zbigniew Klimont, Chris Heyes, and Hilde Fagerli

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Short summary
Methane in the atmosphere contributes to the production of ozone gas, which is an air pollutant as well as a greenhouse gas. In this study, the impact of reducing methane emissions on surface ozone is investigated for the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) region excluding North America and Israel (the "EMEP region"), in particular in terms of its importance in reaching the ozone exposure guideline limits set by the World Health Organization.