Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1220
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1220
23 May 2024
 | 23 May 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Analysis of surface deformation prediction in high mountain canyon areas based on time-series InSAR technology and improved Elman neural network

Kuayue Chen, Wenfei Xi, and Baoyun Wang

Abstract. To address the issues of over-reliance on deformation data and model singularity in existing surface deformation prediction methods in high mountain canyon areas, this study proposes the improvement of Elman neural network using cuckoo search algorithm and grey wolf optimization algorithm (CS-Elman and GWO-Elman) from the perspective of multi-temporal and multi-factor analysis. Firstly, surface deformation in the study area is monitored using SBAS-InSAR and PS-InSAR techniques. Then, the optimal evaluation factors are determined from 13 evaluation factors including digital elevation model (DEM) and slope using grey correlation analysis and correlation matrix analysis in SPSSAU software. These optimal factors, combined with surface deformation monitoring values obtained from InSAR technology, are used to construct CS-Elman and GWO-Elman prediction models from a multi-factor and multi-temporal perspective. Finally, the optimal prediction model is determined through comparative experiments and its prediction performance is validated. Results indicate: (1) SBAS-InSAR and PS-InSAR techniques exhibit a high correlation coefficient (R2=0.85) between monitored radar line of sight (LOS) deformation rates, demonstrating the feasibility of joint analysis of the two techniques. (2) The CS-Elman model has a smaller absolute error range compared to the GWO-Elman model. The optimal convergence iteration number, mean square error, mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the CS-Elman model are 3 iterations, 0.020 mm/a, 1.620 mm/a and 21.500 %, respectively, which are all superior to the GWO-Elman model. This indicates that the Elman network optimized by the CS algorithm exhibits better performance and higher accuracy in predicting surface deformation in high mountain canyon areas. (3) Comparative analysis with SVM, LSTM and PSO-BP models, as well as prediction of temporal deformation trends at deformation points, validate the advantages and effectiveness of the CS-Elman model in surface deformation prediction. This method can serve as an effective means for long-term deformation prediction in high mountain canyon areas.

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Kuayue Chen, Wenfei Xi, and Baoyun Wang

Status: open (until 10 Jul 2024)

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Kuayue Chen, Wenfei Xi, and Baoyun Wang
Kuayue Chen, Wenfei Xi, and Baoyun Wang

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Short summary
In response to the issues of excessive reliance on deformation data and single-model approach in existing methods for predicting surface deformation in high-mountain canyon areas, this study constructs a predictive model from multiple factors influencing the occurrence of geological disasters. Based on the existing monitored data, the model forecasts future surface deformation and assesses the likelihood of future geological disasters by integrating various factors such as rainfall.