15 May 2023
 | 15 May 2023
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

The influence of springtime Arctic ozone recovery on stratospheric and surface climate

Gabriel Chiodo, Marina Friedel, Svenja Seeber, Andrea Stenke, Timofei Sukhodolov, and Franziska Zilker

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone is expected to recover by mid-century due to the success of the Montreal Protocol in regulating the emission of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). In the Arctic, ozone abundances are projected to surpass historical levels due to the combined effect of decreasing ODSs and elevated greenhouse gases (GHGs). While ozone recovery has been shown to be a major driver of future surface climate in the Southern Hemisphere during summertime, the dynamical and climatic impacts of elevated ozone levels in the Arctic have not been investigated. In this study, we use two chemistry climate models (SOCOL-MPIOM and CESM-WACCM) to assess the climatic impacts of Arctic ozone recovery on stratospheric dynamics and surface climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the 21st century. Under the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) examined in this work, Arctic ozone returns to pre-industrial levels by the middle of the century. Thereby, it warms the lower Arctic stratosphere, reduces the strength of the polar vortex, advancing its breakdown, and weakening the Brewer-Dobson circulation. In the troposphere, Arctic ozone recovery induces a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, pushing the jet equatorward over the Atlantic. These impacts of ozone recovery in the NH are smaller than the effects of GHGs, but they are remarkably robust among the two models employed in this study, cancelling out some of the GHG effects. Taken together, our results indicate that Arctic ozone recovery actively shapes the projected changes in the stratospheric circulation and their coupling to the troposphere, thereby playing an important and previously unrecognized role as driver of the large-scale atmospheric circulation response to climate change

Gabriel Chiodo et al.

Status: open (until 26 Jun 2023)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-672', Anonymous Referee #2, 17 May 2023 reply
    • AC1: 'Author comment to referee report', Gabriel Chiodo, 25 May 2023 reply
      • RC2: 'Reply on AC1', Anonymous Referee #2, 26 May 2023 reply

Gabriel Chiodo et al.

Gabriel Chiodo et al.


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Short summary
Stratospheric ozone protects the biosphere from harmful UV radiation. Anthropogenic activity has led to a reduction in the ozone layer in the recent past but thanks to the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, the ozone layer is projected to recover. In this study, we show that projected future changes in Arctic ozone abundances during springtime will influence stratosphere climate, and thereby actively modulate large-scale circulation changes in the Northern Hemisphere.