Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-665
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-665
11 Apr 2023
 | 11 Apr 2023

ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world

Ed Hawkins, Gilbert P. Compo, and Prashant D. Sardeshmukh

Abstract. A new reanalysis-based approach is proposed to examine how extreme weather events differ in a warmer or cooler counter-factual world. This approach offers a novel way to develop plausible storylines for some types of extreme event that other methods may not be suitable for. As a proof-of-concept, a reanalysis of a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 is translated into a warmer world where it produces higher wind speeds and increased rainfall, suggesting that this storm would be more damaging if it occurred today rather than 120 years ago.

Ed Hawkins et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-665', Joseph Barsugli, 11 Apr 2023
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-665', Davide Faranda, 13 Apr 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-665', Anonymous Referee #2, 10 May 2023

Ed Hawkins et al.

Data sets

Ulysses Storm Data Ed Hawkins https://github.com/ed-hawkins/ulysses-storm-data

Ed Hawkins et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 1,231 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
920 290 21 1,231 49 10 12
  • HTML: 920
  • PDF: 290
  • XML: 21
  • Total: 1,231
  • Supplement: 49
  • BibTeX: 10
  • EndNote: 12
Views and downloads (calculated since 11 Apr 2023)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 11 Apr 2023)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 1,255 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 1,255 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 07 Jun 2023
Download
Short summary
Adapting to climate change requires an understanding of how extreme weather events are changing. We propose a new approach to examine how the consequences of a particular weather pattern have been made worse by climate change, using an example of a severe windstorm that occurred in 1903. When this storm is translated into a warmer world it produces higher wind speeds and increased rainfall, suggesting that this storm would be more damaging if it occurred today rather than 120 years ago.