EGUsphere EGUsphere EGUsphere EGUsphere 2190-4995 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/egusphere-2023-665 ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world Hawkins Ed https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677 1 Compo Gilbert P. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5199-9633 2 3 Sardeshmukh Prashant D. 2 National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, USA NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, USA 11 04 2023 2023 1 6 Copyright: © 2023 Ed Hawkins et al. 2023 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-665/ The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-665/egusphere-2023-665.pdf

<p>A new reanalysis-based approach is proposed to examine how extreme weather events differ in a warmer or cooler counter-factual world. This approach offers a novel way to develop plausible storylines for some types of extreme event that other methods may not be suitable for. As a proof-of-concept, a reanalysis of a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 is translated into a warmer world where it produces higher wind speeds and increased rainfall, suggesting that this storm would be more damaging if it occurred today rather than 120 years ago.</p>

 Natural Environment Research Council GloSAT NCAS National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NA22OAR4320151