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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-665
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-665
11 Apr 2023
 | 11 Apr 2023

ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world

Ed Hawkins, Gilbert P. Compo, and Prashant D. Sardeshmukh

Abstract. A new reanalysis-based approach is proposed to examine how extreme weather events differ in a warmer or cooler counter-factual world. This approach offers a novel way to develop plausible storylines for some types of extreme event that other methods may not be suitable for. As a proof-of-concept, a reanalysis of a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 is translated into a warmer world where it produces higher wind speeds and increased rainfall, suggesting that this storm would be more damaging if it occurred today rather than 120 years ago.

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18 Oct 2023
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ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world
Ed Hawkins, Gilbert P. Compo, and Prashant D. Sardeshmukh
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1081–1084, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1081-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1081-2023, 2023
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

This paper proposes a novel method for translating past observed extreme weather events into...
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Adapting to climate change requires an understanding of how extreme weather events are changing....
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