06 Apr 2023
 | 06 Apr 2023

Measurement Error Proxy System Models: MEPSM v0.2

Matt J. Fischer

Abstract. Proxy system models (PSMs) are an essential component of paleoclimate data assimilation and for testing climate field reconstruction methods. Generally, current statistical PSMs consider the noise in the output (proxy) variable only, and ignore the noise in the input (environmental) variables. This problem is exacerbated when there are several input variables. Here we develop a new PSM, the Measurement Error Proxy System Model (MEPSM), which includes noise in all variables, including noise auto- and cross-correlation. The MEPSM is calibrated using a quasi-Bayesian solution, which leverages Gaussian conjugacy to produce a fast solution. Another advantage of MEPSM is that the prior can be used to stabilize the solution between an informative prior (e.g. with a non-zero mean) and the maximum likelihood solution. MEPSM is illustrated by calibrating a proxy model for δ18Ocoral with multiple inputs (marine temperature and salinity), including noise in all variables. MEPSM is applicable to many different climate proxies, and will improve our understanding of the effects of predictor noise on PSMs, data assimilation, and climate reconstruction.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Matt J. Fischer

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-643', Anonymous Referee #1, 01 Dec 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Matt Fischer, 19 May 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-643', Anonymous Referee #2, 22 Apr 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Matt Fischer, 30 Apr 2024
Matt J. Fischer

Model code and software

Mattriks/MeasurementErrorModels.jl: MEPSM v0.2.0 Matt Fischer

Matt J. Fischer


Total article views: 718 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
534 157 27 718 54 18 21
  • HTML: 534
  • PDF: 157
  • XML: 27
  • Total: 718
  • Supplement: 54
  • BibTeX: 18
  • EndNote: 21
Views and downloads (calculated since 06 Apr 2023)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 06 Apr 2023)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 681 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 681 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
Latest update: 20 Jun 2024
Short summary
In paleoclimate research, proxy system models or PSMs model chemical or biological systems which receive environmental inputs, and output e.g. geochemical signals. The environmental inputs are rarely noiseless, which causes problems when calibrating multi-input PSMs. Here a PSM is developed which includes generalized noise in both model inputs and outputs, and prior information. A quasi-Bayesian method enhances the stability of the solution of the Measurement Error Proxy System Model.