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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-359
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-359
13 Jun 2023
 | 13 Jun 2023

Update of the Seismogenic Potential of the Upper Rhine Graben Southern Region

Sylvain Michel, Clara Duverger, Laurent Bollinger, Jorge Jara, and Romain Jolivet

Abstract. The Upper Rhine Graben (URG), located in France and Germany, is bordered by north-south trending faults, some of them considered active, posing a potential threat to dense population and infrastructures from the Alsace plain. The largest historical earthquake in the region is the M6.5+/-0.5 Basel earthquake in 1356. Current seismicity (M>2.5 since 1960) is mostly diffuse and located within the graben. We build upon previous seismic hazard studies of the URG by exploring uncertainties in greater detail, revisiting a number of assumptions. We first take into account the limited evidence of neotectonic activity, then explore tectonic scenarios that have not been taken into account previously, exploring uncertainties on Mmax, its recurrence time, the b-value, and the moment released aseismically or through aftershocks. Uncertainties on faults’ moment deficit rates, on the observed seismic events’ magnitude-frequency distribution, and on the moment-area scaling law of earthquakes are also explored. Assuming a purely dip-slip / normal faulting mechanism associated to a simplified 3 main fault model, Mmax maximum probability is estimated at Mw6.05. Considering this scenario, there would be a 99 % probability that Mmax is below 7.25. In contrast, a strike slip assumption associated to a 4 main fault model, consistent with recent paleoseismological studies and the present day stress field, Mmax is estimated at Mw6.85. Based on this scenario, there would be a 99 % probability that Mmax is less than 7.55.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

23 Jan 2024
Update on the seismogenic potential of the Upper Rhine Graben southern region
Sylvain Michel, Clara Duverger, Laurent Bollinger, Jorge Jara, and Romain Jolivet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 163–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-163-2024, 2024
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
The Upper Rhine Graben, located in France and Germany, is bordered by north-south trending...
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