Preprints
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2309.01247
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2309.01247
08 Dec 2023
 | 08 Dec 2023

Evaluation of forecasts by a global data-driven weather model with and without probabilistic post-processing at Norwegian stations

John Bjørnar Bremnes, Thomas N. Nipen, and Ivar A. Seierstad

Abstract. During the last two years, tremendous progress in global data-driven weather models trained on numerical weather prediction (NWP) re-analysis data has been made. The most recent models trained on the ERA5 at 0.25° resolution demonstrate forecast quality on par with ECMWF's high-resolution model with respect to a wide selection of verification metrics. In this study, one of these models, the Pangu-Weather, is compared to several NWP models with and without probabilistic post-processing for 2-meter temperature and 10-meter wind speed forecasting at 183 Norwegian SYNOP stations up to +60 hours ahead. The NWP models included are the ECMWF HRES, ECMWF ENS and the Harmonie-AROME ensemble model MEPS with 2.5 km spatial resolution. Results show that the performances of the global models are on the same level with Pangu-Weather being slightly better than the ECMWF models for temperature and slightly worse for wind speed. The MEPS model clearly provided the best forecasts for both parameters. The post-processing improved the forecast quality considerably for all models, but to a larger extent for the coarse-resolution global models due to stronger systematic deficiencies in these. Apart from this, the main characteristics in the scores were more or less the same with and without post-processing. Our results thus confirm the conclusions from other studies that global data-driven models are promising for operational weather forecasting.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

25 Jun 2024
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Evaluation of forecasts by a global data-driven weather model with and without probabilistic post-processing at Norwegian stations
John Bjørnar Bremnes, Thomas N. Nipen, and Ivar A. Seierstad
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 31, 247–257, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-247-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-247-2024, 2024
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

This is a timely paper given the recent rise in data-driven and AI-based weather forecasting. It...
Short summary
During the last two years tremendous progress in global data-driven weather models trained on...
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