Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2758
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2758
14 Dec 2023
 | 14 Dec 2023
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Long-term Variability in Black Carbon Emissions Constrained by Gap-filled Absorption Aerosol Optical Depth and Associated Premature Mortality in China

Wenxin Zhao, Yu Zhao, Yu Zheng, Dong Chen, Jinyuan Xin, Kaitao Li, Huizheng Che, Zhengqiang Li, Mingrui Ma, and Yun Hang

Abstract. Black carbon (BC) plays an important role in air quality, public health, and climate, while its long-term variations in emissions and health effect were insufficiently understood for China. Here, we present the spatiotemporal evolution of BC emissions and the associated premature mortality in China during 2000–2020 based on an integrated framework combining satellite observations, a machine learning technique, a “top-down” inversion approach, and an exposure-response model. We found that the “bottom-up” approach likely underestimated BC emissions, particularly in less developed western and remote areas. Pollution controls were estimated to reduce the annual BC emissions by 26 % during 2010–2020, reversing the 8 % growth during 2000–2010. BC emissions in the main coal-producing provinces declined by 2010 but rebounded afterwards. By contrast, provinces with higher economic and urbanization levels experienced emission growth (0.05–0.10 Mg/km2/yr) by 2010 and declined greatly (0.07–0.23 Mg/km2/yr) during 2010–2020. The national annual BC-associated premature mortality ranged between 733,910 (95 % confidence interval: 676,790–800,250) and 937,980 cases (864,510–1,023,400) for different years. The changing BC emissions contributed 78,590 cases (72,520–85,600) growth within 2000–2005 and 133,360 (123,150–145,180) reduction within 2010–2015. Strategies differentiated by region are needed for further reducing BC emissions and its health and climate impacts.

Wenxin Zhao, Yu Zhao, Yu Zheng, Dong Chen, Jinyuan Xin, Kaitao Li, Huizheng Che, Zhengqiang Li, Mingrui Ma, and Yun Hang

Status: open (until 29 Feb 2024)

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  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2758', Anonymous Referee #1, 10 Jan 2024 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2758', Anonymous Referee #2, 28 Feb 2024 reply
Wenxin Zhao, Yu Zhao, Yu Zheng, Dong Chen, Jinyuan Xin, Kaitao Li, Huizheng Che, Zhengqiang Li, Mingrui Ma, and Yun Hang
Wenxin Zhao, Yu Zhao, Yu Zheng, Dong Chen, Jinyuan Xin, Kaitao Li, Huizheng Che, Zhengqiang Li, Mingrui Ma, and Yun Hang

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Short summary
We evaluate the long-term (2000–2020) variabilities of aerosol absorption optical depth, black carbon emissions and associated health risks in China, with an integrated framework that combines multiple observations and modeling techniques. We demonstrate the remarkable emission abatement resulting from the implementation of national pollution controls, and how the human activities affected the emissions with a spatiotemporal heterogeneity, supporting differentiated policy making by region.