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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2711
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2711
29 Nov 2023
 | 29 Nov 2023

The impacts of modelling prescribed vs. dynamic land cover in a high CO2 future scenario – greening of the Arctic and Amazonian dieback

Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Vivek Arora, Christian Seiler, and Libo Wang

Abstract. Terrestrial biosphere models are a key tool in investigating the role played by the land surface in the global climate system. However, few models simulate the geographic distribution of biomes dynamically, opting to prescribe them instead using remote sensing products. While prescribing land cover still allows for the simulation of the impacts of climate change on vegetation growth as well as the impacts of land use change, it prevents the simulation of climate change-driven biome shifts, with implications for projecting the future terrestrial carbon sink. Here, we isolate the impacts of prescribed vs. dynamic land cover implementations in a terrestrial biosphere model. We first introduce a framework for evaluating dynamic land cover (i.e., the spatial distribution of plant functional types across the land surface), which can be applied across terrestrial biosphere models alongside standard benchmarking of energy, water, and carbon cycle variables. After establishing confidence in simulated land cover, we then show that the simulated terrestrial carbon sink differs significantly between simulations with dynamic vs. prescribed land cover for a high CO2 future scenario. This is because of important range shifts that are only simulated when dynamic land cover is implemented: tree expansion into the Arctic and Amazonian transition from forest to grassland. In particular, the projected net land-atmosphere CO2 flux at the end of the 21st century is twice as large in simulations with dynamic land cover than in simulations with prescribed land cover. Our results illustrate the importance of climate change-driven biome shifts for projecting the future terrestrial carbon sink.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

24 Jul 2024
The impacts of modelling prescribed vs. dynamic land cover in a high-CO2 future scenario – greening of the Arctic and Amazonian dieback
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Vivek K. Arora, Christian Seiler, and Libo Wang
Biogeosciences, 21, 3339–3371, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3339-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-3339-2024, 2024
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

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Terrestrial biosphere models can either prescribe the geographical distribution of biomes or...
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