Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2534
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2534
05 Dec 2023
 | 05 Dec 2023

Analysis of a newly homogenised ozonesonde dataset from Lauder, New Zealand

Guang Zeng, Richard Querel, Hisako Shiona, Deniz Poyraz, Roeland Van Malderen, Alex Geddes, Penny Smale, Dan Smale, John Robinson, and Olaf Morgenstern

Abstract. This study presents an updated and homogenised ozone time series covering 34 years (1987–2020) of ozonesonde measurements at Lauder, New Zealand, and derived vertically resolved ozone trends. Over the period of 1987–1999, the ozone trends in the homogenised ozone data are predominantly negative from the surface to ∼30 km, ranging from −2 to −10 % decade−1, maximising at around 12–13 km. These negative trends are statistically significant at 95 % confidence level below 5 km and above 17 km. For the post-2000 period, ozone at Lauder shows negative trends in the stratosphere (but the trends are only statistically significant above 17 km), maximising just below 20 km (∼ −5 % decade−1), despite stratospheric chlorine and bromine from ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) both declining in this period. In the troposphere, the ozone trends change from negative for 1987–1999 to positive in the post-2000 period. The post-2000 ozone trends from the ozonesonde measurements compare well with those from a low-vertical resolution Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) ozone time series. A multiple-linear regression analysis indicates that anthropogenic forcing plays a significant role in driving the significant negative trend in the stratospheric ozone at Lauder, in which the effect of greenhouse gas (GHG)-driven dynamical and chemical changes is reflected in the significant positive trends in tropopause height and tropospheric temperature, and significant negative trends of stratospheric temperature observed at Lauder. The interannual variation in lower stratospheric ozone is largely explained by the variation in tropopause height at Lauder, which is highly anti-correlated with stratospheric temperature and correlated with tropospheric temperature. Furthermore, the impact of ODSs and GHGs on ozone over Lauder is assessed in a chemistry-climate model using a series of single forcing simulations. The model simulations show that the predominantly negative modelled trend in ozone for the 1987–1999 period is driven not only by ODSs, but also by increases in GHGs with large but opposing impacts from methane (positive) and CO2 (negative), respectively. Over the 2000–2020 period, although the model underestimates the observed negative ozone trend in the lower stratosphere but clearly shows that CO2-driven dynamical changes have had an increasingly important role in driving ozone trends in this region.

Guang Zeng, Richard Querel, Hisako Shiona, Deniz Poyraz, Roeland Van Malderen, Alex Geddes, Penny Smale, Dan Smale, John Robinson, and Olaf Morgenstern

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2534', Anonymous Referee #1, 21 Dec 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2534', Anonymous Referee #2, 26 Dec 2023
  • AC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2534', Guang Zeng, 28 Feb 2024
Guang Zeng, Richard Querel, Hisako Shiona, Deniz Poyraz, Roeland Van Malderen, Alex Geddes, Penny Smale, Dan Smale, John Robinson, and Olaf Morgenstern
Guang Zeng, Richard Querel, Hisako Shiona, Deniz Poyraz, Roeland Van Malderen, Alex Geddes, Penny Smale, Dan Smale, John Robinson, and Olaf Morgenstern

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Short summary
We present a homogenised ozonesonde record (1987–2020) for Lauder, New Zealand, identify factors driving ozone trends, and attribute them to anthropogenic forcings using statistical analysis and model simulations. We find that significant negative stratospheric ozone trends identified at Lauder are associated with an increase in tropopause height and that CO2-driven dynamical changes have had an increasingly important role in driving ozone trends, offsetting effects of methane and nitrous oxide.